Foreign Exchange & Currency Outlook
Translate macro divergence, policy shifts, and valuation into actionable views across foreign exchange and global currencies.
Currency Chartpack: Euro
Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challen…
The BoJ’s Hawkish Turn Will Push The Yen To 99
The yen's next leg isn't a fiscal story, it's an inflation one, and the BoJ is about to admit it. We lay out why a September pivot sends USD/JPY toward 99, and why global risk assets won't pay the pri…
Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes
The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities…
JPY Intervention: US Joins The Trade
MoF and the US Treasury stepped in together to defend the yen, but even joint intervention cannot reset the fundamentals still weighing on the currency. Washington's pursuit of its own incentives, mea…
The Yen Collapse: All About Inflation, Not Fiscal Stress
Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to…
Will Europe Avoid A Recession? Two Perspectives
Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications.
