BCA understands the world differently
Our time-tested investment frameworks, out-of-the-box thinking, and culture of internal debates enables us to see around corners.
For 75 years, we've been more right than wrong, which we've been thrilled to see benefit our clients. Below are 17 of our favorite calls.
Nov 2024
Correctly forecast the Trump Bond Market Riot (and US election)
Maintained a 55%-65% probability of a Trump victory from December 2023 until the election, focusing mainly on the curve steepening and short duration positions to play the second coming of the Human Steepener.
Nov 2023
Buy European equities
European Investment Strategy recommended European equities, and the overall index rallied by 20% in eight months.
Sep 2023
Predicted Middle East Crisis
Geopolitical Strategy predicted Middle East crisis and favored US equities over global.
May 2023
Go Long US Large Bank Bonds
Shortly after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, US Bond Strategy recommended taking advantage of the spread widening in bank bonds by going long the bonds of the largest US banks.
Mar 2023
Long Chinese government bonds
Counterpoint service argued that the end of China’s housing boom will unleash a debt deflation in China. Bond yields have plunged since then.
Feb 2023
Warned that the China reopening rally would falter
After the rebound in Chinese share prices in late 2022 and January 2023, Emerging Markets Strategy argued that the economic recovery would disappoint and downgraded Chinese offshore stocks from neutral to underweight. The MSCI China Investable equity index dropped by 32% in the following 12 months.
Jun 2022 & Jan 2023
Go Long Gold
Foreign Exchange Strategy and Commodity And Energy Strategy predicted the gold rally.
Dec 2022
Championed Theme of Immaculate Disinflation
Going into 2023, Global Investment Strategy predicted that it would be a year of immaculate disinflation and that share prices would move higher.
Sep 2022
High-Conviction “No Recession” And Equity Rally Calls
While most others were calling for an imminent downturn, Global Investment Strategy and US Investment Strategy argued that the US would avert a recession for some time and that stocks would rebound.
Jul - Sep 2022
Stay Positive on US Consumers
US Investment Strategy pushed back against concerns about the US consumer spending outlook.
Jun 2022
China would reopen sooner than expected, but then economy would stall anyway
Geopolitical Strategy predicted that China would reopen sooner than expected, but then the economy would stall anyway – the link
Jun 2022
Chinese consumer deleveraging
China Investment Strategy predicted household deleveraging will become a new trend in China.
Jan 2022
Predicted Ukraine war
Geopolitical Strategy predicted Ukraine war, shorted the Russian ruble.
Mar 2021
Downgraded EM equities again and shorted select EM currencies.
Emerging Markets Strategy warned that rising US bond yields and weakening global growth warranted weaker EM risk assets and currencies. Over the following three years, EM stocks fell 17% in absolute terms and underperformed DM equities by 33%. Many EM currencies also depreciated considerably.
Feb 2021
Predicted Higher US Inflation and A Reversal In US Stock-to-Bond Correlation
Emerging Markets Strategy predicted a material rise in US inflation and a change in US stock-to-bond correlation.
Oct 2020
Go Short Bond Duration
US Bond Strategy went short duration in October 2020 in advance of the US election. Our view was that a democratic sweep of the election would lead to fiscal stimulus, more rapid economic growth and rising inflation.
Mar 2020
Bet on US corporate spread narrowing
US Bond Strategy went long corporate bonds versus Treasuries in March 2020 on the view that the Fed’s monetary easing and intervention in the corporate bond market would tighten spreads.