Insights

Chief Strategists Marko Papic, Matt Gertken and Roukaya Ibrahim discussed:

• President Trump heads to China this week for critical talks with Xi Jinping that will focus on the war in Iran and global stability.
• If the US cannot offer significant strategic concessions for China's sphere of influence, then China may not join the pressure campaign against Iran.
• Meanwhile the "kinetic equilibrium" in the Persian Gulf faces renewed threats as the US and Iran trade barbs over how to restart shipping.
• The good news is that both sides are trading proposals — and the number of attacks has tended to decline since the April ceasefire.
• The bad news is that Iran remains unwilling to abandon its nuclear program, the US maintains its blockade, and Iran will attack US naval escorts of commercial ships.
• What will come of the US-China talks? Will Iran and the US manage to restart shipping? Can global financial markets continue to weather the Hormuz shock?

Please join BCA Research Strategists, Matt Gertken, Yushu Ma and Jesse Kuri for a Webcast on the US Midterms.

Wednesday, May 13
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST |4:30 PM CEST 

• Midterm elections occur every four years and thus constitute a normal risk, not significant uncertainty.
• But the midterms matter this year because they constrain the Trump administration's foreign policy, which threatens the global economy.
• The midterms will also act as a barometer on US public opinion and the likelihood of another massive reversal of national policy in 2028.
• We revised our quantitative election models to give a read on what range of outcomes to expect for the House and Senate.
• With this information, investors can begin to envision the next twists and turns in market-relevant US policy.
• We will also discuss President Trump's "lame duck" status after the midterms and the investment implications.

BCA Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Roukaya Ibrahim, and Noah Weisberger looked at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.

Topics discussed:

• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy markets are tightening again. Is the shock being underpriced?
• What would a sustained disruption mean for the global growth–inflation trade-off? Is stagflation risk creeping back?
• Within commodities, where is the real asymmetry now? What’s crowded, and what still offers upside?
• Can strategic reserve releases truly cap the rally, or do they just delay the adjustment?
• Equities have remained resilient. Are markets looking through the shock, or misreading it?
• Where is the tipping point: how much further can oil rise before equities reprice meaningfully?
• If crude continues higher, which sectors and factors offer the most convex exposure, not just beta?
• If flows normalize and oil rolls over, where does leadership rotate, and how quickly?

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2

Noah and Jason discussed:

• What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
• The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
• Why we are long Software
• The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
• Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
  • The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight

Please join Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of the Counterpoint service, for a Webcast on:

Thursday, April 30
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

In this Webcast, Dhaval will explore the interplay between two of the biggest macro drivers right now: Agentic AI; and the global commodity shock.

The discussion will include:

1. Can agentic AI extend the tech capex cycle, and who are the winners and losers.
2. Can agentic AI boost productivity growth.
3. Is the oil shock inflationary, recessionary, or both.
4. How does the oil shock’s impact vary by major economy.
5. What are the investment conclusions.

If viewing in the BCA App, the live webcast can be viewed here.

Topics discussed:

• Update on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: shipping, attacks, and the state of talks
• How is the global energy market absorbing the shock?
• How will central banks respond to the trade-off between growth and inflation?
• Should investors fade the USD rebound?
• How is the energy crisis rippling across other commodity markets?