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Foreign Exchange Strategy

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Global Investment Strategy

Special Report

Japan: Escape Velocity Is At A Higher Altitude

19 Sep 2024

by Melanie Kermadjian, Managing Analyst Chester Ntonifor, Chief Strategist

In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress on corporate reforms is necessary for a rerating in Japanese shares. That is not yet very clear. The bottom line is: Stay long the yen.