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Asset Allocation

Semi Stocks: Will AI Demand Spur Further Gains?
Nvidia’s stock price hit a fresh all-time high on Thursday after its blockbuster Q2 earnings call. The company reported it generated $13.51 billion in revenue last month (above expectations of $11.2 billion) and forecasted an increase to $16 billion in Q3…
Daily Insights
Is There A Bullish Case For EM ex-China? (Part 2)
Special Report

In part 2 of this series, we discuss mainstream EM equity valuations and present the results of our cross-country analysis. The goal is to identify overweights and underweights within an EM equity portfolio.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The Service Sector Is Not Immune
Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the flash estimate of the US services…
Daily Insights
China-Related Assets: Not Yet Priced For A Further Slowdown In China
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the indicator is to act as a broad…
Daily Insights
Return Scenarios For Holding US Treasurys Are Asymmetrical
The rise in bond yields over the past few weeks has made some investors wonder whether US Treasurys and other government bonds really are a good hedge against recession. Could there be an environment in which the economy goes into recession but bond yields…
Daily Insights
The Death Of T.I.N.A.: Income Edition
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last expansion, very accommodative monetary policy significantly reduced…
Daily Insights
Is Good News Bad News?
Over the past two months, risk sentiment has improved amid receding fears of an imminent US recession. Economic data have been generating strong upside surprises and the US equity rally has broadened with cyclicals outperforming defensives since the beginning…
Daily Insights
Style Chart Pack: Of Yields and Earnings

The S&P 500 rally broadened in July, lifting this year’s laggards. Surging long yields are altering the macroeconomic backdrop, as the market absorbs that monetary policy will stay restrictive for a long time. Yet, a move down in yields is more likely than a move up over a tactical horizon. Q2 earnings were better than expected but investors were unimpressed – the good news is already priced in. The market is overvalued and is close to being overbought, which makes it vulnerable to disappointment.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
July In Review
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slower Inflation, Then Slower Growth

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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