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Asset Allocation

Is The US Manufacturing Cycle On The Verge Of A Turnaround?
A range of indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is currently under duress. But should this weakness be extrapolated into the rest of the year? The US manufacturing cycle tends to follow a very predictable wave-like pattern. Each cycle tends…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Investors Are (More) Pessimistic
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to -17.9. Both the Expectations…
Daily Insights
The Calm Before The Storm
On a 12-month investment horizon, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service recommends a defensive stance: Overweight government bonds, and underweight equities and credit. The US stock market trades on 19x forward earnings (and that is based on…
Daily Insights
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: The W-Shaped Bear Market

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
A Macro Playbook For Asset Allocators
Special Report

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession stage (negative growth coupled and an overheated economy), our framework recommends a defensive positioning across all asset classes.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Third Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook – They Never See It Coming

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Canadian Inflation: Slowing, But Not Enough To Calm The BoC
Canadian inflation slowed in May, slowing to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis from 4.4% in April. This matched market expectations, with the monthly increase of 0.4% (versus 0.7% in April), slightly lower than the 0.5% consensus forecast. The year-over-year…
Daily Insights
European Aerospace And Defense Stocks Are Hot
European aerospace and defense stocks are on the offense. Year-to-date, they are up 20% in absolute terms and 24% relative to their US counterparts, both in US dollar terms. The relative 12-month forward earnings suggest that this outperformance still has…
Daily Insights
Head Fake Or Real Deal Webcast: Poll Results And Client Questions

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Times of Extreme Tightening Support Private Credit
According to BCA Research’s newly launched Private Markets & Alternatives service, the present moment in the business cycle appears to be favorable for Private Credit relative to Private Equity. The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by…
Daily Insights

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