Asset Allocation
We see a more positive backdrop for credit providers, with bilateral and structuring features as tailwinds for Private Credit. While there may be potential green shoots in some areas of Private Equity, current valuations are not attractive. We prefer Directional Hedge Funds over Diversifier and Risk Mitigation strategies. Real Estate has been an effective hedge against inflation, but now historically low cap rates are a headwind.
The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to overweight Growth vs. Value.
Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.
In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q1/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio slightly underperformed its benchmark during the quarter as global growth showed surprising resilience to begin the year. Looking ahead, the portfolio is positioned to capitalize on an expected slowing of global growth over the rest of the year through an overweight stance on government bonds versus spread product.
Several signs have emerged that the “bad news is good news” rally has run its course. Despite deteriorating economic data, the Fed is expected to maintain its “higher for longer” stance, disappointing the market. A rate cut is likely is only in case of a severe downturn, but that will not offer support to equities, until earnings growth bottoms. We recommend shifting a portfolio toward a defensive stance, and away from cyclicals at this juncture. We downgrade Auto to an underweight, and Capital Goods and Energy Equipment and Services to an equal weight.
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term focused investors should start raising cash allocations by trimming their equity holdings.
The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.
We analyzed US bear markets since 1954 to identify reliable indicators for distinguishing new equity bull markets from bear market rallies. Our checklist of indicators does not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-asset portfolio. Remain underweight on equities, overweight on fixed income, and neutral on cash.
Macroeconomic and business conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for Tech as the bottoming of demand is in sight. Yet, we don’t believe that now is an attractive entry point - the good news is fully priced in, and technicals signal a pullback. However, the sector is worth monitoring as we are getting closer to a sustainable rebound. Our positioning remains unchanged.