Bear/Bull Market
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, rising inflation benefits Utilities, Energy, and Materials, and is a headwind for the Consumer Discretionary sector. After a protracted bout of underperformance, the Energy sector has rebounded …
Short speculative positions on Bitcoin at the CME are near theie highest level on record. Some financial commentators have suggested that this bearish positioning in bitcoin could act as kindle and spark a short squeeze. But looking at raw speculative…
We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.
Thematic investing has become increasingly important for investors over the past few years. And yet, in spite of the popularity of thematic strategies, the vast majority of investors underperform when buying into such strategies. A recent study by…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since February 5th, with the former…
The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic surprise index, both on an absolute basis as…
In a recent report, our US Bond strategists argued that while the year-to-date increase in yields has made Treasures more attractive, conditions are not yet in place to extend duration. Instead, they expect that there will be a better opportunity later this…
MacroQuant upgraded equities to overweight in February on a tactical short-term (1-to-3 month) horizon, but it continues to see downside risks to stocks on a medium-term (12-month) horizon. Consistent with the model’s relatively somber medium-term growth outlook, it sees more downside for bond yields on a 12-month horizon than on a 1-to-3 month horizon.
At the headline level, US equity indices are on a tear with the S&P 500 forging a fresh all-time high last week and the NASDAQ on the verge of overtaking its November 2021 record close. However, the rally remains quite narrow, led by only a few stocks. As…