Business Cycles
The US Employment report came in well above consensus expectations on Friday, delivering a strong positive signal on labor market conditions in January. The 353 thousand increase in nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations of a slowdown to 185 thousand.…
The S&P/TSX Venture Index is a micro-cap index of Canadian companies listed on the TSX Venture Stock Exchange. Nearly two thirds of the index is comprised of material and energy stocks, making the index exposed to fluctuations in commodity markets.…
After falling throughout most of the second half of 2023, the US economic surprise index has surged over the past few weeks, indicating that economic conditions are firm at the start of the year. Indeed, Manufacturing PMIs delivered a positive signal last…
In this Insight our Equity Analyzer team explores how the S&P 500 behaves when the Fed Funds Target Rate drops by 25bps – 150bps within a single year. The current dot plot is signaling 75bps of cuts by the end of the year, the mid-point of the range.…
The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade Saudi Arabia from neutral to overweight.
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one less than in December) while one…
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central banks don’t behave recklessly –…
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with the investable and domestic…
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest pace of quarterly increase since 2021Q2…
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…