Business Cycles
Some key Asian trade indicators are warning against betting on a sustained rebound in global trade activity. In particular, Taiwanese export orders collapsed by 16% y/y in December – significantly below expectations of a minor 1.0% y/y contraction. This…
The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) kicked off the fourth-quarter US reporting season on January 12th. As usual, our US Investment Strategists studied the SIFI’s earnings calls looking for macroeconomic insights from borrower performance, lender willingness,…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the rate cuts priced in the €STR curve.…
The ECB will begin cutting rates in June, what does this start date imply for the yield curve and European cyclicals?
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The headline index jumped from 69.7 to a 30-month high of 78.8, beating expectations of a slight increase to 70.1. The current conditions and…
Inflation cooled for the second consecutive month in Japan with annual headline CPI inflation falling from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y in December. Underlying inflation gauges also cooled, with the December prints of core and “core core” (excluding fresh food and…
After having traded sideways for the past month, US equities ended the week on a high note with the S&P 500 closing at fresh record high on Friday. Last year’s winners are once again driving the rally. Information Technology, Communication Services, and…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service expects the Fed to slow the pace of QT starting at the May FOMC meeting, the same time that it starts cutting rates. QT will likely end altogether later in 2024 if the economy enters a recession. However, if recession…
Recent data suggest that the US housing market is resilient. In particular, a strong rebound in homebuilder sentiment is sending a positive signal. The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped from 37 to 44 in January – handily beating expectations of 39 on the back…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change in activity, three districts…