Business Cycles
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors keep portfolio duration close to benchmark for now. They will increase rate exposure as the labor market downturn worsens. Treasury yields are up slightly to start the year, but last Friday’s…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish after the election.
Optimism among investors and economic agents continues to improve in the Eurozone. The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone rose from -16.8 to -15.8 in January – in line with consensus expectations and marking the third consecutive increase. The current…
Growth in US disposable income has outpaced inflation nearly every month since mid-2022. Consumption is principally driven by income, but in the US it has gotten a meaningful assist the last two years from the drawdown of excess savings accumulated over the…
The S&P 500 has started off the new year on a weak footing, dropping by 1.5% in the first week of January. Indeed, by the end of 2023, several indicators were warning that conditions were becoming bearish. In particular, investors have…
Following a strong rally in the prior two years, the performance of the US dollar was significantly weaker in 2023. The DXY index ended last year down 0.9%, after gaining 3.3% and 6.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Importantly, the USD weakness was…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the structural landscape of China's property market today is, in many aspects, more challenging than the real estate markets in Japan and the US at the peak of their housing bubbles: The…
At first blush, the US establishment survey delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The increase in US nonfarm payroll employment jumped from 173 thousand to 216 thousand in December – beating expectations of 175 thousand. Wage growth also surprised to the…
Friday’s Eurozone CPI inflation report was in line with consensus estimates. Headline inflation reaccelerated from 2.4%y/y to 2.9%y/y in December, in part reflecting the impact of the end of energy subsidies in Germany and France. The pace of energy deflation…
After rallying by 11.2% between October 5 and December 27, the price of copper has since been on a losing streak, falling in each of the subsequent six trading sessions. Notably, this decline has coincided with weakness among some other pro-cyclical financial…