Business Cycles
Global financial markets ended 2023 on a positive note, delivering a second consecutive month of exceptional gains in December. Fixed income once again led in terms of abnormally large returns on the back of increased expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, the timing and pace of rate cuts in 2024 will differ across countries, representing a big sea change from the highly correlated rate hiking cycles of the past two years. Currently, the…
The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely. Chinese share prices remain vulnerable, and strengthening in the RMB will be short-lived.
Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.
Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.
In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.
The short answer, according to our colleagues at BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) is straightforward, but not simple: Political economy – i.e., how states organize and operate their economies to support policy and advance their interests. …
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, domestic demand and corporate profits will disappoint across mainstream Emerging Market economies (excluding China, India, Korea, and Taiwan) in H1 2024. Retail sales volume growth has been…
The November US retail sales release for November delivered a positive signal about consumer spending. Overall retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.3% m/m, surprising expectations of a 0.1% m/m decline. The details of the report were also favorable. Eight…
As expected, the ECB kept its policy rate unchanged on Thursday. In the updated macroeconomic projections, the central bank revised down its inflation and growth forecasts for next year. It now expects inflation to ease to 2.7% in 2024 – 0.5 percentage…