Business Cycles
Chinese trade data for October delivered a mixed message on Tuesday. On the one hand, the export contraction deepened to -6.4% y/y following -6.2% y/y in September and surprised expectations that it would moderate to -3.5% y/y. Yet on the other hand, import…
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday, in line with consensus expectations. Governor Michele Bullock's post meeting statement underscored that although inflation is moderating, it remains too high…
The Global Composite PMI slid to 9-month low in October, sending a pessimistic signal about economic conditions around the world. The 0.5-point decline pushed the index down to 50.0 – right on the boom-bust line indicating that global activity stagnated last…
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, the current spate of MBS underperformance has created a lot of value in the sector. Mortgage-Backed Securities underperformed the duration-equivalent Treasury index by 64 basis points in October,…
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continued to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE) except government residential…
The S&P 500's 5.9% rally last week marks the greatest weekly price gain since November 2022. This sharp increase comes after a 10.3% selloff between the start of August and late-October, which put the benchmark in correction territory. A 36bps drop in the…
Last week the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced further relaxations to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Despite this, the yen has shown no signs of life. Since the BOJ's decision was announced, the yen is the worst performing G10 currency; on a 2023YTD…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the effect of the pass-through of energy…
The US Nonfarm Payroll report indicates that labor market conditions cooled in October. The 150 thousand increase in payroll employment fell below expectations of 180 thousand and marks a slowdown from the 297 thousand increase in September. Moreover, the…
The US ISM PMI delivered a disappointing signal about service sector activity in October. The headline index fell from 53.6 to 51.8 – marking a sharp slowdown in activity and falling below expectations of a much more muted decline to 53.0. The index is now at…