Business Cycles
Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US, the Services PMI’s…
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ made an important tweak to its…
Investor sentiment has turned less optimistic. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook has collapsed to 31.3% from its peak of 51.4% two months ago. It is now back down below its historical average of 37.5%.…
Thursday’s release of US weekly jobless claims and continuing claims delivered a positive surprise about labor market conditions. The decline in initial jobless claims to an eight-month low of 201 thousand came in below expectations of an increase from 221…
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues’ once-out-of-consensus call on crude oil prices – i.e., benchmark Brent prices averaging $94/bbl in 2H23 and trading above $100/bbl by December – now is the dominant narrative. So, of course, they figured…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices. One risk that has recently emerged is the…
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders accelerated to -15.7% y/y in August --…
The August UK inflation report produced a large downside surprise. Headline CPI rose +0.3% month-on-month, versus expectations of a +0.7% increase. Year-over-year headline CPI inflation slowed to 6.7% from 6.8%, a sizeable miss versus the consensus forecast…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the 2006/07 roadmap remains a good one for bond investors. The Fed held the funds rate steady this afternoon and made no material changes to its policy statement. That said, meeting participants did…
Collapsing German producer prices continue to indicate that inflationary pressures are moderating in the Eurozone. Total PPI declined by a record 12.6% y/y in August following a 6.0% y/y drop in July. While the annual decline mainly reflects the impact of…