Business Cycles
Consensus expectations for the US economy were bleak at the start of the year. In hindsight, this pessimism was excessive: real GDP expanded in the first two quarters of the year (see Country Focus). Similarly, the US Conference Board’s Coincident Economic…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that coincides with the onset of the next recession and…
On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the US labor market continues to cool. It showed job openings fell to 8.827 million in July following a downwardly revised 9.165 million in June (down from the earlier estimate of…
The US and China agreed to hold trade talks more regularly on August 28, even as they fell short of establishing a strategic détente or general reduction of tensions. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang…
On the surface, the latest uptick in the General Business Activity Index of the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Survey suggests that manufacturing activity is no longer deteriorating at an accelerating pace. The indicator rose by 2.8 points to -17.2 in August —…
The Eurozone's economy remains soft. Yesterday we highlighted that M3 money supply fell by 0.4% y/y in July, a rate unseen since 2010. This decline was driven by a slowdown in private sector bank lending, which confirms broad economic weakness. Notably, the…
Tokyo’s headline CPI inflation fell below expectations in August, easing from 3.2% y/y to 2.9% y/y – slightly below anticipations of 3.0% y/y and the first dip below 3% in nearly one year. Similarly, the slowdown in the ex-fresh food measure from 3.0% y/y to…
The ongoing profit contraction among Chinese industrial firms underscores that deflationary headwinds dominate the domestic economy. Although the annual pace of decline of industrial profits slowed from 8.3% y/y in June to 6.7% y/y in July (a 15.5% y/y drop…
Eurozone money supply data reflect the impact of the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign on the region’s economy. Data released on Monday showed the July M3 measure of broad money (the sum of M2, repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units and…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the profit outlook for Eurozone earnings continues to deteriorate. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a deepening profit contraction in the order of 24%…