China
Our Geopolitical strategists view the Trump–Xi summit as a limited but market-friendly outcome, extending the tariff truce and reducing near-term geopolitical risk. While no trade deal was reached, modest concessions such as lower tariffs and a pause on…
China’s October PMIs hovered around 50, underscoring a stagnant outlook and policy continuity from the Fourth Plenum. The RatingDog (formerly Caixin) Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 50.6, down from 51.2, while the official NBS manufacturing PMI slipped…
The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets.
Our Emerging Markets strategists advise against chasing the rally in Chinese equities, as anti-involution policies are unlikely to end deflation or support a sustainable earnings recovery. The rally has been partially based on the expectation that the…
The US and China announced a one-year trade truce, but differences remain too wide for a lasting deal. The agreement includes a pause on rare-earth restrictions, allowances for blacklisted Chinese firms to import chips through subsidiaries, and modest…
China's anti-involution policies will not end deflation or boost corporate profits on a sustainable basis. Authorities will be reluctant to cut industrial capacity as doing so would lead to layoffs. Consequently, production will continue to exceed demand, and price deflation will persist.
This month’s China High-Frequency Indicator (HFI) Chartbook decodes the conflicting messages in recent economic data, highlights key signals from our HFI, and explains what they mean for China’s economy and markets.
China’s Fourth Plenum outlined priorities for its 2026–2030 plan, emphasizing household consumption and technological upgrading but signaling continuity over change. The document highlights a rebalancing toward consumption as a share of GDP, but concrete…
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in South Korea, with both sides…
Our China Investment strategists argue that China’s manufacturing offshoring is modest and overstated, with only firms demonstrating pricing power and technological leadership likely to generate durable shareholder returns. Headline outward FDI figures mask…