Consumer

Meager credit growth and shrinking real wages will keep Thai inflation very low in the coming months. The currency will get support from an improving current account surplus. Fixed-income investors should upgrade Thailand from neutral to overweight within EM domestic bond portfolios.

2 years ago

Emerging Markets

Essentials

German Factory Orders Disappoint

German factory orders sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday.  New orders at German factories unexpectedly declined by 3.7% m/m in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m rise following two consecutive months of increase. The annual rate of…

2 years ago

Essentials

Euro Area Retail Sales: A Budding Rebound?

Retail sales volumes grew on a sequential basis for the first time in three months in October, rising by 0.1% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline. On an annual basis, the pace of decline slowed from -2.9% y/y to -1.2% y/y. While the release…

2 years ago

Essentials

Chinese Stocks: Cheap For A Reason

China’s CSI 300 equity index closed at its lowest level since early 2019 on Tuesday following news that Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s credit rating from stable to negative. The report cited the potential impact of financial stress among…

2 years ago

Essentials

Immaculate Disinflation?

The November services PMIs sent a slightly positive signal on Tuesday. The global measure ticked up from 50.4 to 50.6, pointing to a marginal pickup in the pace of expansion. Importantly, this slight improvement was broad-based across the major global…

2 years ago

Equities

2024 Key Views: The End Of Eras

Special Report

We expect the US economy to slow and potentially downshift into a recession sometime in 2024, as tighter monetary policy weighs on consumers and businesses. In addition, (geo)political tensions may increase market volatility. The risk/return for US equities is unfavorable. We recommend that our clients reduce portfolio beta and increase allocations to defensives and quality growth.

2 years ago

US Equities

Essentials

Eurozone Sentix: A Durable Improvement?

The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more meaningful improvement to -15.6.…

2 years ago

Essentials

S&P 500 Sectors Are Churning Beneath The Surface

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh year-to-date high on Friday, breaking slightly above its late-July top. The brisk rally since late-October erased all the losses of the prior three months. However, the sector performance has shifted over the course of the…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Eurozone's Three Credit Phases In 2024

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will likely be characterized by three credit…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation

Special Report

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

2 years ago

Consumer

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