Corporate Bonds
This <i>Special Report</i> reviews all of our active recommendations, including our over/underweight country and asset allocation positions, as well as our current tactical trades.
Bearish sentiment, higher oil prices and Chinese policy stimulus leave room for a continued bounce in stock prices. But this rally is unlikely to prove sustainable.
Expectations of a deepening EM/China growth slump and RMB depreciation have been the key to the selloff in global risk assets. There is no basis for these expectations to improve. Therefore, there are few fundamental reasons for EM and global risk assets to rally much further. Stay put. In Brazil, the impeachment rally is unsustainable and will reverse sooner than later. Stay short Brazilian risk assets.
Fed policymakers will soon shift their focus toward the strong employment and inflation data and stress that further rate hikes this year are likely. This will stem the rally in risk assets and cap the upside in long-dated yields.
The relief rally is not over, and could benefit from commodity and currency market movements. Oil prices likely are banging out a bottom. In general, however, a healthy dose of caution is warranted. Our bias is to sell into, rather than chase, rallies in risk assets.
The Treasury market is now discounting too slow a pace of Fed tightening, while junk spreads are discounting too rapid an increase in the default rate. This week we examine the risk/reward proposition of temporarily leaning against some prevailing long-run macro trends.
The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.
The agreement to freeze oil production should reduce tail risks, even if it does not improve overall corporate sector health and profits.
Value in the U.S. Treasury market is rapidly deteriorating, and the 10-year Treasury yield is now consistent with our fair value projections. Investors should shift from an above-benchmark to a benchmark duration stance.