Economic Growth
According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become considerably more supportive since the fall of 2023. More recently, the index ticked noticeably lower from 99.4 earlier in August to 98.8. US equities have indeed…
Back in May, our Commodity and Energy strategists argued that OPEC, EIA, and IEA oil demand forecasts were likely too optimistic. Indeed, while all three major oil price forecasters projected a moderation in demand this year, none of them anticipated weak…
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life expectancy and a rising dependency…
Canadian headline CPI decelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.5% in July, the slowest pace in over 3 years. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI eased further than expected, to 2.4% and 2.7% y/y respectively, 0.1 ppt below anticipations. Lower prices for…
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.5% in August. It had kept rates on hold in June, after having led many other major DM central banks in easing policy in May. The Riksbank also signaled it could cut as many as…
The ZEW survey of Eurozone business expectations decreased by a whopping 25.8 points to 17.9 in August. Notably, expectations for Germany’s current situation disappointed, worsening from an already depressed -68.9 level to -77.3, and expectations of future…
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained dismal (-25.9% YTD y/y). Industrial…
"There's no supply chain in the world that's more critical to us than China." — Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, March 2024 According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy and Emerging Market Strategy services, while high-profile multinational companies…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through July. Aggregate financing missed expectations, growing CNY 0.8bn to CNY 18.9bn in July on a YTD basis. New loans grew CNY 0.2bn to CNY 13.5bn, below the CNY…