Economic Growth

Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.

2 years ago

Essentials

Weak Yen Boosted Japan's Exports, Not Global Demand

Japanese exports in JPY increased from 8.3% y/y to 13.5% in May, surpassing expectations of 12.7%. 23.9% and 17.8% y/y growth in exports to the US and China, respectively, led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-oriented economies are generally…

2 years ago

Essentials

Agency MBS: Best Bang For Your Buck?

In its latest Special Report, BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service considers the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current…

2 years ago

Essentials

Growth Unlikely To Overshoot ECB Forecast

The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June, moderating the degree of restriction rather than pivoting outright to easy monetary policy settings. Indeed, the rate cut was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation and growth forecasts. Since then,…

2 years ago

Essentials

Singapore Electronics Exports Point To Resilient Global Growth

Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions and they surprised to the upside in May. Notably, electronics exports, which are particularly sensitive to…

2 years ago

Essentials

Can The New Coalition Save South Africa?

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the South African election presents a window of opportunity for productivity-boosting structural reforms, such as privatization, to coincide with monetary and fiscal easing necessary to fend off…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

South Africa: After Hegemony

Special Report

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

2 years ago

Emerging Markets

CoreMacro

The US Consumer Is NOT In Great Shape

Global consumer spending is likely to slow over the coming quarters, culminating in a major economic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Investors should maintain benchmark exposure to equities for now but look to turn more defensive by the end of this summer.

2 years ago

Global

Essentials

Investor Sentiment Turns Positive In The Eurozone

The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month highs of 10 and -9, respectively.…

2 years ago

Essentials

Excess Savings Won’t Save China's Economy

The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China, households nevertheless accumulated CNY…

2 years ago

Economic Growth

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