Economic Growth
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
On the surface, the slower pace of contraction in Chinese exports in September is a positive signal for global trade. The 6.2% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports was not as bad as the 8% y/y decline anticipated or the 8.8% y/y decline in August. …
Back in May, our foreign exchange team suggested the risk to sterling was to the downside. Indeed, GBP/USD is down 8% from its recent peak. While dollar strength largely explains this move in GBP/USD, there have been other fundamental factors at play. The…
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and expectations of CNY 3.7 trillion. However,…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US Investment strategists recently…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a modest 5.4 times forward earnings or…
Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial assets and global China plays.…
Households’ excess pandemic savings will eventually run out, but we continue to disagree with the widespread view that they’re already gone or entirely in the hands of the wealthy. Consumers’ demise continues to be greatly exaggerated.
As expected, the US ISM PMI showed service sector activity slowing in September. The Services ISM declined from 54.5 to 53.6, broadly in line with expectations of 53.5. Although the level of the headline index indicates that service sector growth remains…