Economy
The ISM manufacturing PMI declined further in May, from 49.2 to 48.7, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of deterioration. Similar to dynamics observed with their Chinese counterparts (see Country Focus), both US manufacturing PMI measures…
The Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI reached a two-year high in May, expanding at a larger-than-expected rate from 51.4 to 51.7. The Caixin figure thus contrasts with the alternative NBS manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly contracted in May. The Caixin…
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?
In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.
MacroQuant sees significant downside risks to stocks over a 1-to-3 month horizon and suggests increasing allocation to long-term bonds. The model favours defensive equity sectors but is also hedging its bets by overweighting materials.
US nominal personal income growth decelerated from 0.5% m/m to 0.3% m/m in April, in line with expectations. However, nominal personal spending surprised to the downside, and contracted 0.1% m/m in real terms. Core PCE – the Fed’s favored inflation gauge –…
US Q1 GDP was revised lower from 1.6% q/q annualized to 1.3%. Notably, the downward revision to personal consumption was higher than expected, from 2.5% q/q annualized to 2.0%. Investment and government spending were revised higher. Real final sales to…
Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disappointed in May. The manufacturing PMI contracted in May (49.5), breaking a two-month expansion streak and disappointing expectations of continued growth. Meanwhile, the services sector PMI…