Elections

Remain cautious and defensive overall. Stay long DM Europe over EM Europe. Look for EM opportunities in Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China.

Investors should stay defensive on recession risks until they subside meaningfully.

Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.

The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints.

Stay defensive until recession risks are verifiably dispelled. Favor government bonds over stocks.

Stocks will only get temporary relief from gridlock. Inflation will abate but then remain sticky. US and global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain historically high.

Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.

The midterm election will bring some relief from US policy uncertainty. But this relief will be short-lived unless Republicans win the Senate, which is still too close to call. Global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain high.