Emerging Markets
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the country’s green and tech infrastructure investment to continue to boom in 2023 and beyond. China’s tech infrastructure investment skyrocketed by nearly 40% year-on-year in the past six months,…
Chinese import and export growth both disappointed and signal that the Chinese economy continues to face acute global and domestic headwinds. Imports collapsed by 10.6% y/y in USD terms following October’s 0.7% y/y decline. Similarly, the export growth…
Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.
China’s infrastructure investment growth rate will likely slow from its current nominal 14% to 4-6% in 2023H1, on a year-over-year basis. Funding constraints and a shrinking pool of good projects will cap the upside in China’s overall infrastructure fixed-asset investment (FAI) in the next six months.
Chinese investable stocks and the Asian currencies index posted the largest positive post-GFC abnormal returns among major financial market assets in November. Investor optimism about a potential relaxation of pandemic measures in China, as well as hopes for…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.
The Chinese Renminbi recently made a sharp U-turn. Year-to-date weakness has given way to a 4.9% appreciation versus the USD since the end of October. This rally occurred against the backdrop of broad-based US dollar depreciation. Global investors cheered the…
Over the past week, the South African rand was a key underperformer in the currency space. Despite broad-based dollar weakness, USD/ZAR ended the weak 2.4% higher. Heightened domestic political uncertainty triggered the South African currency’s…
Emerging Markets equities and bonds have staged an impressive rally. The MSCI Emerging Markets index and the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Composite Total Return index advanced by 15% and 7%, respectively, in November in US dollar terms. This performance…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service recommends a new relative equity trade: short Chinese bank stocks / long Chinese consumer staples and auto stocks. Authorities are once again using banks to finance stimulus – in this case, to fund property…