Equities

Our US Equity Strategy service looks back at their performance for the first half of the year and assesses what they hit or missed so far and comments on the ongoing rally in the stock market. The team hit on the economic slowdown but missed on the…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

The Inflation Expectations Time-Bomb

The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and some investment implications. Plus: the yen is a rebound candidate, while Japanese equities are a reversal candidate.

3 years ago

Essentials

Unwarranted Policy Tightening

In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team posited that the bear market in Malaysian stocks will be prolonged. Disinflationary forces have taken hold of the Malaysian economy: money supply has plunged, bond yields are falling, and the yield…

3 years ago

Essentials

European Aerospace And Defense Stocks Are Hot

European aerospace and defense stocks are on the offense. Year-to-date, they are up 20% in absolute terms and 24% relative to their US counterparts, both in US dollar terms. The relative 12-month forward earnings suggest that this outperformance still has…

3 years ago

Equities

Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

3 years ago

US Equities AI

CoreMacro

So Much For Détente?

Special Report

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

3 years ago

Global

CoreMacro

Turkey: Time To Go In?

Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?

3 years ago

Emerging Markets

Essentials

Risky Asset Prices, A Looming Recession, And The Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen is typically a counter-cyclical currency. As shown in the chart above, the correlation between global stock prices and the yen is usually negative. However, over the past year, the yen’s correlation with risky asset prices has shifted…

3 years ago

Essentials

Will Energy Stocks Continue Underperforming?

For the most part, the US equity rally has been rather narrow this year – concentrated among stocks that investors perceive will be the key winners of recent AI developments. In the first five months of the year, only three S&P 500 sectors were in the…

3 years ago

Essentials

Watch Interest Rates, Not The Balance Sheet

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, when the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies are sending opposite signals, listen to interest rates. There seems to be some worry among investors that the coming increase in Treasury cash…

3 years ago

Equities

Related Topics