Equities

Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

2 years ago

MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

2 years ago

MacroQuant

Essentials

Sluggish Economic Conditions Persist In China

China’s official NBS PMI indicates that growth conditions remain sluggish. Although the composite index ticked up from 50.3 to 50.9, it is still barely in expansionary territory. Notably, the manufacturing PMI – which inched up by 0.2 points in January –…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

2 years ago

Essentials

S&P 500 Margins: Race To The Bottom - Unit Labor Costs vs Pricing Power

S&P 500 operating margins have been in a downdraft for nearly two years – but the consensus is still penciling in expansion for 2024. How likely is that? Our US Equity Strategy colleagues have addressed this question in their recent “Marginally Better…

2 years ago

Essentials

Introducing MacroQuant 2.0

BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service has officially launched its MacroQuant 2.0 Model. The platform consists of a variety of modules, all of which communicate with each other to produce economically sensible and internally consistent…

2 years ago

Essentials

Can Cyclicals' Outperformance Persist?

Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate have been the top performing…

2 years ago

Essentials

Will The Magnificent Seven Continue To Power The US Equity Rally?

This week is set to be a busy one for the US market. On the policy front, there is the Wednesday FOMC meeting which will give insight into the Fed’s latest thinking regarding the timing of rate cuts. On the data front, there is the Friday Jobs report which…

2 years ago

Essentials

Deflationary Pressures Are Dampening Chinese Industrial Profits

China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth came in at 16.8% y/y in December…

2 years ago

Equities

Happily Ever After?

A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of rate cuts may disappoint. Second, the recession has been delayed but not avoided. Further, geopolitical risk is elevated. We will overweight Tech on the next dip and upgrade Retail to an overweight.

2 years ago

US Equities

Equities

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