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Euro Area

Essentials
Hedging The Oil Risk: Sell EUR/NOK
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, valuations, interest rate differentials, and higher oil prices favor the NOK over the EUR. Higher oil prices, especially when they reflect tightening supply, act as a risk to the euro. This…
2 years ago
CoreMacro
Euro Update

The euro has weakened sharply since mid-July as US growth continues to outperform that of the Eurozone. Is a new bear market afoot for the common currency?

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
Europe
Essentials
Eurozone Economic Weakness A Headwind For EUR/USD
Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m in July – significantly below…
2 years ago
GeoMacro
From Southeast Asia To Spain (GeoRisk Update)

The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling to outperform. Investors should stay defensive overall.

Yushu Ma, Jesse Anak Kuri
2 years ago
China
Essentials
Eurozone And Chinese Services PMIs Disappoint
The final PMIs for August delivered a pessimistic update on service sector conditions in the Euro Area and China. The Eurozone services index was unexpectedly revised down from 48.3 to 47.9 – indicating a more pronounced decline in service sector activity…
2 years ago
Essentials
On Eurozone Inflationary Pressures
Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration to 5.1%. Similarly, the 0.6%…
2 years ago
Essentials
French Luxuries Trump US Technology
The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US technology, it is French luxury goods. On most time horizons over the past decades, French luxuries have trumped US technology on profit growth, price performance and total return performance. The…
2 years ago
Essentials
Will The ECB Hike Again?
Euro Area inflation data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. According to preliminary data, although Germany’s harmonized headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in August, it nevertheless came in above consensus estimates calling for…
2 years ago
CoreMacro
French Luxuries Trump US Technology

The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US tech, it is French luxuries. No other sector can compare with French luxuries’ massive and sustained pricing power. The risk for French luxuries is not a China slowdown, the risk is that the structural increase in super-wealth comes to an end. If anything though, the coming disruption from generative AI will boost super-wealth. Ironically therefore, the best investment play on generative AI might be French luxuries.

Dhaval Joshi
2 years ago
Essentials
Signs Of Slowdown: Eurozone Services Sector
The Eurozone's economy remains soft. Yesterday we highlighted that M3 money supply fell by 0.4% y/y in July, a rate unseen since 2010. This decline was driven by a slowdown in private sector bank lending, which confirms broad economic weakness. Notably, the…
2 years ago

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