Euro Area

Dissipating Pipeline Pressures In Germany

German producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The producer price index’s 6.0% y/y drop in July is more pronounced than the anticipated 5.1% y/y decline and marks the first annual decrease since November 2020 and the…

2 years ago

Essentials

How Much Higher For German Yields?

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to move meaningfully higher in the…

2 years ago

Essentials

Eurozone Earnings Follow Nominal Growth

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the earnings outlook of Eurozone equities will continue to deteriorate over the coming two quarters despite the improvement in real economic activity. Earnings and revenue growth are…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

The Problem With European Earnings

European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.

2 years ago

Europe

GeoMacro

Not Immaculate (GeoRisk Update)

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

2 years ago

Essentials

Bullish Implications For Greek 10-Year Government Bond Spreads

Greece is experiencing a strong economic revival from its lows of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The Hellenic Republic has shown resilience, with an annual real GDP growth of 4.5%, outpacing the Euro Area’s growth by 2%. Greece is also faring better on the…

2 years ago

Essentials

Eurozone Sentix: Green Shoots?

The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone sent a positive signal on Monday. It unexpectedly increased from -22.5 to -18.9 in August, surprising expectations of a further deterioration to -24.5. This marks the index’s first increase in four months. A…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Taking Stock

August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?

2 years ago

Europe

Essentials

Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky

The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Data Dependent

The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?

2 years ago

Europe

Euro Area

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