Europe

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?

The world economy is likely already in recession, defined as world growth dipping to sub-2 percent. So far, the world recession has been China-led, but in the coming months it will change to being developed economy-led. Hence, while metals and industrial commodities may get some brief respite, high yield credit and stocks will underperform government bonds. New tactical recommendations are to overweight French luxury goods versus US tech, and to overweight USD/COP.