Europe

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

European inflation has further downside and core CPI will soon begin to fall too. However, European growth will remain soggy in Q2. What does this environment mean for investors?

High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit conditions. We discuss the implications for credit, government bonds and equities. Plus, we find a startling anomaly in equity sector performance.