Europe
Euro Area monetary aggregates are showing the impact of tight ECB policy. M1 money supply – which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits – declined by 0.7% y/y in January. The broader M3 measure of money supply growth continued to…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service investors worried about the impact of higher yields on their equity portfolios should favor German, Norwegian, British, and Italian stocks in their portfolios compared to US, French, and Swedish…
It is easy to conclude that European equities are attractively valued by looking at multiples; however, a method rooted in fundamentals is essential to find out which bourses are genuinely cheap.
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk.
The German Ifo Business Climate Index increased by 1 point to 91.1 in February, broadly in line with consensus estimates. In particular, the improvement comes on the back of a 2.1-point rise in the expectations component which is now at its highest level…
The EUR/SEK has been on a strong upward trend, appreciating 13% since its 2021 lows. However, its bull run is coming to an end. According to BCA’s European Investment Strategy team, this cross is now expensive and short- and long-term momentum indicators have…
The preliminary estimate of the European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 1.7 points to a 1-year high of -19 in February, in line with expectations. This marks the fifth consecutive improvement in household sentiment. Firming consumer…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the green light to buy and overweight European banks and financials will come once the ECB relents on its hiking campaign. The positive long-term outlook for European financials, including…
Long-term drivers, including the growing ability of banks to returns cash to shareholders, point toward a strong structural performance for European financials. However, the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign could still spoil the party.
The four-month-long outperformance of Eurozone equities relative to US stocks has recently stalled. Multiple factors explain this dynamic. A strengthening US dollar reduces foreign gains when expressed in US dollars. Thus, EUR/USD’s 2.7% decline since…