Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Government

FICC
Don't Chase Yields Higher

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

Ryan Swift
3 years ago
Bonds
CoreMacro
What Ails China Is Not What Most Investors Think

China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recession risks were to flare up again, a lethargic Chinese economy would be a cause for concern. Chinese stocks are quite cheap but lack a clear catalyst to move higher. Favor EM markets where earnings and sales estimates have been moving up lately.

Peter Berezin
3 years ago
GlobalChina
Essentials
Fitch US Downgrade: AA+ Is The New AAA
US financial markets were dealt a summer shock yesterday with Fitch Ratings lowering its sovereign credit rating on the US to AA+ from AAA. This brings the rating down to the same level as that of S&P, which announced its own US downgrade nearly twelve…
3 years ago
Essentials
July In Review
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…
3 years ago
Essentials
Buy Chinese NEV Stocks
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing’s investment focus is shifting from traditional infrastructure to new economy infrastructure, which includes clean energy and high-tech sectors.  Due to funding constraints,…
3 years ago
Essentials
BoJ Commits To "Greater Flexibility"
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater flexibility” such that the 0.5% level is…
3 years ago
Essentials
EV Demand Drives The Lithium Market
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects steady demand for EVs will be able to absorb increasing lithium supplies in the short-to-medium term. The team is getting long the LIT ETF at tonight’s close. Demand for lithium-ion batteries…
3 years ago
Essentials
Copper's China Problem
Over the past two months, copper has rallied alongside risk assets and now stands 9% above its late-May trough. Here, the outlook for China’s economy – which accounts for over half of global refined copper usage – is key to whether the red metal will continue…
3 years ago
Essentials
Value Has Returned To Short-Maturity TIPS
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-year TIPS breakeven slope…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
China’s Stimulus: Necessary But Not Sufficient

Stay cautious on Chinese stocks. Equity investors should use any rebound in onshore stock prices to downgrade A-shares from overweight to neutral within global and EM equity portfolios. Remain underweight Chinese investable/offshore stocks. Onshore bond yields will drop to all-time lows. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates. The currency will continue depreciating versus the US dollar in the coming months.

Arthur Budaghyan
3 years ago
Emerging MarketsChina

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics