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Inflation/Deflation

Stagflation Risks Will Keep BoC On Hold Despite Cooler CPI
Cooler inflation will not shift the BoC’s stance, as stagflation limits potential easing, keeping us neutral on Canadian bonds. In March, headline CPI slowed more than expected to 2.3% y/y from 2.6%. However, lower energy prices drove much of the downside…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Growth Cracks Without Inflation Relief
The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations reinforces our defensive stance, with growth concerns deepening even as long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. The survey is a useful cross-check against broader sentiment and inflation indicators,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariff Relief ≠ Growth Relief
Special Report

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
Sentiment Sinks as Inflation Expectations Surge
The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rise in inflation expectations reinforce our defensive positioning and preference for long-duration bonds. The preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, missing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Sell America Trade

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Inflation Cools But Trade Tensions Keep the Fed on Hold
March’s cooler CPI print reinforces our defensive positioning as it points to softening growth that the Fed cannot address yet. Headline CPI came in at -0.1% m/m (2.4% y/y), and core rose just 0.1% m/m, slowing to 2.8% y/y from 3.1%. Core services inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
One More Thing To Worry About

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Stagflation Risks Keep BoC Patient
Canada’s difficult macro outlook is already priced, supporting a neutral stance on Canadian government bonds within a global fixed-income portfolio. We continue to recommend a small long CAD/USD position, where bad news is well priced and the reward-to-risk…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump The Unifier

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Own Goal

The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up the timetable, we reiterate our risk-off recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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