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Inflation/Deflation

A Re-Heating Risk?
Since the August selloff in risk assets, the main cross-asset driver was the shift from inflation worries to growth worries. Some of that price action has reversed, as TIPS breakeven inflation rates swiftly rebounded since early September. The 2-year…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
A Turning Point For US Small Caps?
US retail sales beat expectations in September, rising 0.4% from August when growth was essentially flat. The control group also beat expectations at 0.7% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.3%. Growth was however somehow weak on an annual basis, suggesting a…
Daily Insights
ECB Bank Lending Survey: A Bright Spot For Europe
Banks reported an increase in loan demand from both firms and households in the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey, marking the first rise since 2022. This demand increase occurred as lending standards for firms remained roughly unchanged after two…
Daily Insights
Soft Landing And US Treasuries
Recent positive US economic surprises drove cross-asset pricing, pushing both equities and Treasury yields higher. What do these yield levels mean for the Treasury market, and what path can we expect looking forward? Our US Bond strategists believe the…
Daily Insights
Canadian Inflation Supports Dovish BoC
Canadian headline inflation rose 1.6% year-over-year in September, lower than the expected 1.8% and down from 2.0% in August. This was also its slowest pace since February 2021. The decrease was mainly driven by gasoline prices, leaving the core (ex. food and…
Daily Insights
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Staying The Course

Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our defensive investment recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Inflation Takes A Back Seat

We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
BoJ To Keep Normalizing Despite Dovish Ishiba
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in September. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.0 to 47.8 and from 50.3 to 49.7, below expectations of an…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics