Inflation/Deflation
Comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, hinting at “a more aggressive” pace of rate cuts, marked a shift in rhetoric from previous meetings which signaled a “gradual” pace. The GBP/USD fell on the news and money markets proceeded to…
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI improved from 49.5 to 50.4 in September, breaking a 17-month contraction streak. It corroborated solid broad-based retail sales growth in July and August. Confidence in the outlook also improved. That said, we…
TIPS outperformed duration-equivalent nominal Treasuries by 86 bps so far in 2024 and our US bond strategists downgraded their allocation from neutral to underweight this week. The 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate remains comfortably in the middle of…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the consensus expectation of a soft landing is wishful thinking. Many investors have pointed to the mid-1990s as an example of when Fed easing paved the way for an economic boom.…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2024.
US job openings grew by a larger-than-expected 8.04 million jobs in August from 7.71 million. July’s openings were also revised 38 thousand higher. However, despite the upside surprise, the August hires rate fell to 3.3% and July’s hires were revised…
Preliminary estimates suggest that Eurozone headline and core CPI inflation decelerated from 2.2% to 1.8% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.7%, respectively, in September. The inflation data from individual Euro Area countries earlier last week had already prompted…
The ISM manufacturing PMI remained constant in September at 47.2, against expectations of a slower pace of decline and extending a six-month contraction streak. Measures of production and domestic demand decelerated at a notably slower pace while foreign…
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…