Inflation/Deflation
In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.
Headline and core CPI eased for the fourth consecutive month in July, ticking down 0.1 ppt to 2.9% and 3.2% y/y, respectively. The 3-month and 6-month moving averages continued to edge lower as a result, with the former now reaching a three-and-half-year low…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly embarked on an easing pivot in August, cutting the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 5.25%. The central bank also signaled further rate cuts by lowering its rate benchmark forecast to 4.92% by December 2024 and 3.85%…
Goods prices have normalized following the pandemic binge on goods spending and have contributed to easing price pressures overall. A large drop in vehicle prices largely drove the decrease in July’s CPI and we have questioned the sustainability of an…
US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US Bond strategists have…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast, respectively). Inflation…
The Australian CPI release for Q2 came in broadly within expectations. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%y/y from 3.6%y/y the previous quarter. Some of the narrower measures of inflation — trimmed-mean and weighted median CPI — came in below market…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, while the market action of the past few weeks is pointing to a return to a negative stock-bond correlation, more prints will be needed to confirm things are getting back to normal. The post-COVID…
The Bank of England (BoE) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5% at its meeting on Thursday. While the move was expected, the governing board was split, voting 5 – 4 in favor of reducing the key interest rate. The BoE cut its policy rate despite…