Inflation Protected
So far, there is no evidence of second-round effects from the oil price shock showing up in the US economy. Fed rate hikes are off the table unless those effects emerge.
FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair.
Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields.
Inflation’s underlying trend was headed lower prior to the Iran war. This makes the recent back-up in bond yields look like an attractive buying opportunity.
The gap between PCE and CPI inflation will narrow within the next few months, mostly driven by core PCE inflation converging toward its trimmed mean.
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets.
