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Labor Market

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Essentials
The Fed In 2024
Special Report

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

Ryan Swift
2 years ago
Thematic Reports
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FICC
The Fed In 2024
Special Report

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

Ryan Swift
2 years ago
Bonds
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CoreMacro
Year-End Chartbook

Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn tactically defensive until more investors are drawn into the soft-landing camp, capping the equity rally.

Doug Peta
2 years ago
US
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CoreMacro
2024 Key Views: Europe In Recession
Special Report

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
EuropeChina
Essentials
Goldilocks? Or The Two Bears?
The November US retail sales release for November delivered a positive signal about consumer spending. Overall retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.3% m/m, surprising expectations of a 0.1% m/m decline. The details of the report were also favorable. Eight…
2 years ago
Essentials
ECB Leans Against Rate Cut Expectations
As expected, the ECB kept its policy rate unchanged on Thursday. In the updated macroeconomic projections, the central bank revised down its inflation and growth forecasts for next year. It now expects inflation to ease to 2.7% in 2024 – 0.5 percentage…
2 years ago
Essentials
Disinflation Trend Will Continue In 2024
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly basis, both headline and core…
2 years ago
Essentials
Shift To Steepeners Once The Labor Market Breaks
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, Treasury curve steepeners will pay off handsomely once the next recession hits. However, curve flatteners (aka barbelled Treasury portfolios) offer better value for the near term. A barbelled Treasury…
2 years ago
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FICC
2024 Key Views: US Fixed Income
Special Report

Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.

Ryan Swift
2 years ago
Bonds
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CoreMacro
Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Peter Berezin
2 years ago
GlobalAI

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics