Manufacturing

MacroQuant sees significant downside risks to stocks over a 1-to-3 month horizon and suggests increasing allocation to long-term bonds. The model favours defensive equity sectors but is also hedging its bets by overweighting materials.

Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.

The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.

There is a path to a soft landing, but it is a narrow one. We estimate that there is only a 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. We are currently neutral on global equities, but expect to downgrade stocks to underweight during the summer.