Monetary
The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current activity index jumped by 15.8 points to…
The UK inflation release for January came in slightly softer than anticipated. Both headline and core CPI were unchanged on year-over-year basis at 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively – below expectations of slight accelerations. The 0.6% m/m decline in the headline…
In a recent Insight we looked at the performance of equities following the start of monetary easing cycles. Specifically, we looked at the historical performance of US cyclical sectors versus defensive sectors at various points in time after the Fed’s first…
Prices of agricultural commodities have come under intensified downward pressure this year. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices have fallen by 8.6%, 8.3%, and 4.9% respectively so far this year. Multiple factors are behind the selloff. First, ag prices…
We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of the January NFIB survey…
The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts for the US economy, they have…
The Swiss franc is among the worst performing major currencies so far this year. This marks a reversal following its stellar performance last year. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) support for the domestic currency is behind last year’s strength.…
The US CPI report for January showed inflation did not cool as much as anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.23% to 0.31% on a month-over-month basis, higher than anticipations of 0.2% m/m. It fell from 3.4% to 3.1% on a year-over-year basis,…
China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.