New Zealand

Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant model on a daily basis for confirmation.

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US growth is boosting the rest of the world.

In this Insight, we review the latest Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings, and suggest the appropriate bond and currency strategies.

In this Insight, we review the latest Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings, and suggest the appropriate bond and currency strategies.

In this Month-In-Review report, we go over the latest G10 data releases and rank currencies’ fundamental standing based on our updated macroeconomic model.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand dollar.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand dollar.