Oil

Highlights The May-June WTI spread settled earlier in the week at a $7.29/bbl contango, the widest level since February 2009 during the GFC. This reflects an extraordinarily tight storage market in the US Gulf and Midcontinent. WTI for May delivery breached $20/bbl Wednesday, touching a 18-year low (Chart of the Week). Output cuts starting in May agreed by OPEC 2.0 over the weekend will remove 6.1mm b/d on average for May-December vs. 1Q20 levels. Additional losses outside OPEC 2.0 will reduce global supply 4.5mm b/d y/y. We raised our estimate of COVID-19-induced demand destruction in 2Q20 to 14.6mm b/d from 12.1mm b/d. We expect demand to fall ~ 8mm b/d in 2020 vs. our previous estimate of 4mm b/d, as global fiscal and monetary stimulus revives growth in 2H20. We expect 2021 demand to rise 7.7mm b/d, averaging 100.6mm b/d. In our updated forecast, Brent is expected to average $39/bbl – slightly above our earlier $35/bbl estimate – as incremental supply losses offset lower demand. Our Brent forecast for 2021 remains ~ $65/bbl. WTI will trade $2-$4/bbl lower. Feature   April is the cruellest month … - T.S. Eliot, The Waste Land1 Global oil logistical capacity will be tested in extremis this month, as cargoes laden with oil arrive in ports that have no need for ready supply and few storage options to hold the crude until its needed. This is filling traditional global storage, inland pipelines and ships, which, as typically occurs in extremis, are used as floating storage (Chart 2). Chart of the WeekCrude Oil In Extremis Chart 2Floating Storage Volumes Soar As Terminals and Pipelines Fill The most extreme testing of global logistics likely will occur in this cruel month, to borrow once again from the laureate, as markets are forced to absorb the production surge from OPEC 2.0 – mostly from KSA and its allies. Repeated excursions to and through $10/bbl in physical markets, as already have been registered in Canada and US shale basins, can be expected this month (Chart 3). Indeed, we expect price pressures to reduce US oil ouput – mostly in the shales – by 1.5mm b/d or more.2 Beginning in May, OPEC 2.0 will begin cutting production, with its putative leaders – KSA and Russia – accounting for 1.3mm b/d and 2.1mm b/d, respectively, of the coalition’s total pledged cuts of 7.6mm b/d vs. 1Q20 production levels. (Based on OPEC 2.0’s October 1, 2018, reference level – except for KSA and Russia, both of which are cutting from a nominal 11mm b/d level – the cuts amount to 9.7mm b/d for May-June, and 7.7mm b/d for 2H20).3 Chart 3Cash Markets Pressing /bbl While the official OPEC communique notes the coalition also will implement a 6mm b/d cut from January 2021 to April 2022, we doubt this will be necessary. The coalition meets again in June, and KSA’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said the Kingdom is prepared to increase its cuts if needed.4 Based on historical experience, we expect KSA to over-deliver on cuts, and for Russia to gradually meet its pledged volumes. We are haircutting other states’ production cuts based on historical observation, and are projecting cuts of ~ 75% for 2020 and 70% for 2021 compliance (Table 1). Additional losses outside OPEC 2.0 will reduce global supply 4.5mm b/d y/y on average. Table 1BCA Global Oil Supply - Demand Balances (MMb/d, Base Case Balances) Lowering Our Demand Forecast The COVID-19 pandemic, which, owing to the global lockdowns, has literally shut the majority of the world’s economies down, and produced a global GDP contraction far greater than the recession the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) produced in 2008. Our estimate of COVID-19-induced demand destruction in 2Q20 is now 14.6mm b/d, up from 12.1mm b/d. For all of 2020, we expect demand to fall 7.9mm b/d in our base case vs. our previous estimate of 4mm b/d. These estimates are highly conditional on the trajectory of the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic, which, owing to the global lockdowns, has literally shut the majority of the world’s economies down, and produced a global real GDP contraction far greater than the recession the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) produced in 2008 (Chart 4). Nonetheless, we believe the massive global fiscal and monetary stimulus now being deployed will restore growth beginning in 2H20 and carrying through to expect 2021 demand to rise 7.7mm b/d, and to average 100.6mm b/d (Chart 5). Chart 4COVID-19 Real GDP Hits Dwarf 2009 GFC Recession Chart 5Massive Stimulus Will Revive Demand We assume OPEC 2.0 will be required to raise production in 2021 to keep prices from accelerating too fast. While our demand expectations are slightly weaker, in our modeling we see supply being curtailed sufficiently to produce a physical deficit beginning in 3Q20 (Chart 6). Our supply-demand trajectory projects a peak in OECD storage of 3.7 billion barrels in May, after which inventories fall sharply (Chart 7). Indeed, we assume OPEC 2.0 will be required to raise production in 2021 to keep prices from accelerating too fast. Chart 6Oil Supply-Demand Balances Point To Physical Deficit By 4Q20 Chart 7Inventories Spike, Then Draw Sharply Two-Way Price Risk Our forecast assumes the COVID-19 pandemic is contained and that fiscal and monetary stimulus re-energizes global growth. In our updated forecast, we see Brent averaging $39/bbl this year – slightly above our earlier $35/bbl estimate – as incremental supply losses offset lower demand. Next year, our expectation remains ~ $65/bbl. WTI will trade $2-$4/bbl lower (Chart 8). As noted above, our forecast assumes the COVID-19 pandemic is contained and that fiscal and monetary stimulus re-energizes global growth. However, as the pandemic spreads deeper into less-developed EM economies without robust public-health infrastructures, or social security systems providing a basic income in the event of job loss due to recessions the risk of widespread infection rises significantly.5 Chart 8Stronger Price Recovery Expected No amount of fiscal or monetary stimulus will allow an economy to weather such a storm. This is a clear and present danger to the global recovery and to a recovery in commodities generally, oil in particular. Investment Implications Our expectation for prices is reflected in Chart 8, premised, again, on COVID-19 being contained and fiscal and monetary stimulus reviving global growth. We are retaining our long exposure to the market, expecting the supply and demand policies set in motion will be effective. However, there is no way of accurately assessing the likelihood of an uncontained pandemic hitting EM markets, and, from there, re-entering other markets that presumably have dealt with the coronavirus.   Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com Hugo Bélanger Associate Editor Commodity & Energy Strategy HugoB@bcaresearch.com Fernando Crupi Research Associate Commodity & Energy Strategy FernandoC@bcaresearch.com   Commodities Round-Up Energy: Overweight Global oil inventories will be filled rapidly in 2Q20 as major economies remain in lockdowns. High-cost Canadian oil sand producers will be severely hit as their output is landlocked, distant from key demand centers, and facing storage and pipeline infrastructure constraints. More than 500k b/d of production will be shut-in in April and May as crude-by-rail collapses, local and US refinery runs are reduced, and Alberta’s limited inventory moves closer to its maximum capacity – estimated at ~ 90mm bbls (Chart 9). Separately, a €20/MT stop to our EUA futures recommendation was triggered on April 14, 2020, leaving us with a 14.2% gain. Base Metals: Neutral China’s iron ore imports fell to 85.9mm MT in March, a decline 0.6% y/y, after growing 1.5% in January and February. This came as steel mills arranged maintenance or slowed production to deal with record-high inventories after the COVID-19 pandemic curtailed construction and industrial activities. However, in the long run the outlook for iron ore and steel appears to be improving. Mysteel data for China indicates utilization rates at blast furnaces have been rising for four weeks and are now at ~ 79%. Chinese Steel exports also picked up in March, up 2.4% from a year earlier, but are now facing new anti-dumping duties on stainless steel in the EU. Precious Metals: Neutral Gold continues to trade above $1700/oz – reaching its highest level since October 2012 – supported by easing fiscal and monetary policy in the US and fear of a prolonged economic slowdown. A lower US dollar – the DXY index fell back below 100 last week – and depressed real rates supported gold’s move higher (Chart 10). Dollar debasement risks and negative real rates increase gold’s attractiveness as a safe asset. Ags/Softs:  Underweight China’s March soybean imports came in at 4.28mm MT y/y, the lowest level since February 2015. Rains in Brazil delayed that country’s exports to China. The fall also reflects a 6% contraction in soymeal (i.e., the “crush”) consumed by livestock – as the African Swine Fever slashed China’s pig herd by more than 40% and shortages forced operations to grind to a halt. Similarly, meat suppliers in the US and Canada are closing plants temporarily due to COVID-19 cases among employees. As a result, Chicago soybean futures traded 0.8% lower on Tuesday. Chart 9Limited Storage Capacity In Alberta Chart 10Lower US Rates And Dollar Support Gold   Footnotes 1     The Waste Land, by T.S. Eliot, originally was published in 1922 in The Criterion, which was founded and edited by Eliot. 2     The Texas Railroad Commission held day-long hearings April 14 to consider returning to its historic roll as an oil-production regulator on Tuesday.  As we went to press no ruling on the petition to revive pro-rationing was delivered.  The Oklahoma Corporation Commission will hold similar hearings next month.  Please see Texas and Oklahoma weigh production quotas for oil published by washingtonpost.com April 13, 2020. 3    Please see The 10th (Extraordinary) OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting concludes, posted by OPEC April 12, 2020. 4    Please see Saudi energy minister leaves door open for more cuts in June, published by worldoil.com April 13, 2020. 5    Please see National governments have gone big. The IMF and World Bank need to do the same. This op-ed by Gordon Brown and Larry Summers, published by washingtonpost.com April 14, 2020, lays out some of the issues that elevate downside risk to a COVID-19 recovery.   Investment Views and Themes Recommendations Strategic Recommendations Tactical Trades Trade Recommendation Performance In 2019 Q4 Commodity Prices and Plays Reference Table   Trades Closed in 2020 Summary of Closed Trades

Highlights Stay tactically neutral to equities. The market may meet some short-term resistance, especially as a slew of poor earnings are released in the coming weeks. The long-term threat to equities comes from the pandemic’s lasting after-effects, such as financial and corporate distress, and/or a political backlash against the private sector. Long-term investors should prefer equities over bonds, with the caveat that the threat does not materialise. Long-term equity investors should avoid oil and gas and European banks at all costs… …but healthcare, European personal products, and European clothes and accessories should all form core long-term holdings. Fractal trade: long nickel / short copper. Feature Chart of the WeekSales Per Share Must 'Catch Down' With GDP, Just Like In 2008 The sharp snapback rally in stock markets has reached an important resistance point – the critical Fibonacci level of a 38.2 percent proportionate retracement of the sell-off.1 Technical analysts define the sell-off in terms of the most recent peak to trough. But we define it differently. We define it in terms of the longest time horizon of investors that capitulated at the sell-off. The market may meet some short-term resistance. The longest time horizon of investors that capitulated at the sell-off’s climax on March 18 was a seven-quarter horizon. Hence, we define the sell-off as the seven-quarter decline to March 18. On that basis, and using the DAX as our benchmark, we would expect the index to meet resistance at around a 21 percent retracement rally from the March 18 low. Which is pretty much where the DAX stands right now (Chart I-2).2 Chart I-22020 Low: A Seven-Quarter Capitulation Followed By A Fibonacci Retracement After A Sharp Snapback Rally What Happens Next? The maximum length of investment horizons that capitulated on March 18 was unusually long at seven quarters. This should comfort long-term investors because of an important investment identity: Financial markets have fully priced a downturn when the longest time horizon of investors that have capitulated = the length of the downturn. So, the good news is that the March 18 bottom should hold if the downturn does not last longer than seven quarters. In this regard, the main risk of a protracted downturn comes not from the pandemic itself. Even if the pandemic returns in second and third waves, any economic shutdowns, full or partial, should last considerably less than seven quarters. Instead, the main risk comes from lasting after-effects, such as financial and corporate distress, and/or a political backlash against the private sector. The long-term threat comes from the pandemic’s after-effects on economic and political systems. But a protracted downturn of what? As we are focussing on the stock market, the downturn is not of GDP per se but its stock market equivalent: sales per share. In the long run, sales per share and GDP advance at the same rate. But the sector compositions of the stock market and GDP are not the same, so over shorter periods sales per share can underperform or outperform GDP. In which case, sales per share must catch up or catch down (Chart of the Week). In 2008, sales per share had to catch down. As a result, world sales per share declined for seven quarters through 2008-10, considerably longer than the decline in GDP (Chart I-3). Hence, the stock market found its bottom in early March 2009 when the longest time horizon of investors that had capitulated had reached seven quarters (Chart I-4). Chart I-32008-10: Sales Per Share Fell For Seven Quarters Chart I-42009 Low: A Seven-Quarter Capitulation Followed By A Fibonacci Retracement From this March 2009 bottom, the Fibonacci retracement equated to a 35 percent advance, which the market achieved by early June 2009. Thereafter, stocks met short-term resistance and gave back some of the snapback rally. Fast forward to 2020. Having likewise reached the Fibonacci retracement, the market may meet some short-term resistance, especially as a slew of poor earnings are released in the coming weeks. Assuming no lasting after-effects from financial distress or political backlash, the next sustained advance will happen later this year. Valuations Flatter Equities, But They Still Beat Bonds Turning to long-term investors the three most important things are: valuation, valuation, and valuation. Our favourite valuation measure is price to sales, which has been a good predictor of 10-year prospective returns going back to at least the 1980s (Chart I-5). Chart I-5Price To Sales Might Over-Estimate Prospective Returns In 2020, Just Like In 2008 But the predictive power depends on a crucial underlying assumption – that the past is a good guide to the future. Specifically, today we must assume that the pandemic causes just a brief blip in the multi-decade uptrend in stock market sales and profits. To repeat, the main long-term threat to stock markets comes not from the pandemic itself. The long-term threat comes from the pandemic’s after-effects on economic and political systems – such as crippled banking systems or large-scale nationalisations of the private sector. Furthermore, price to sales will err in its prediction if sales per share have deviated from GDP – implying either a future catch up or catch down. In the 1990s sales per share had underperformed GDP, so future returns outperformed the valuation prediction. However, in 2008 sales per share had outperformed GDP, so future returns underperformed the prediction. Today, just as in 2008, sales per share have become overstretched relative to GDP, so there will be a catch down. Which will weigh down prospective returns relative to what valuations appear to imply. Still, even adjusting for this, equities are likely to produce annualised nominal returns in the mid-single digits, comfortably higher than the yields on long-term government bonds. Hence, with the caveat that the pandemic does not generate lasting after-effects for economic and political systems, long-term investors should prefer equities over bonds. What Not To Buy, And What To Buy If a stock, sector, or stock market maintains a structural uptrend in sales and profits, then a big drop in the share price provides an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors. In this case, the lower share price is stretching the elastic between the price and the up-trending profits, resulting in an eventual snap upwards. However, if sales and profits are in terminal decline, then the sell-off is not a buying opportunity other than on a tactical basis. This is because the elastic will lose its tension as profits drift down towards the lower price. In fact, despite the sell-off, if the profit downtrend continues, the elastic may be forced to snap downwards! Do not buy sectors whose profits are in major downtrends. This leads to a somewhat counterintuitive conclusion for long-term investors. After a big drop in the stock market, do not buy everything that has dropped. And do not buy the stocks and sectors that have dropped the most if their profits are in major downtrends. Specifically, the profits of oil and gas and European banks are in major structural downtrends (Chart I-6 and Chart I-7). Long-term equity investors should avoid these sectors at all costs. Chart I-6Oil And Gas Profits In A Major ##br##Downtrend Chart I-7European Banks Profits In A Major Downtrend Conversely, the profits of healthcare, European personal products, and European clothes and accessories are all in major structural uptrends (Chart I-8 - Chart I-10). As such, all three sectors should be core holdings for all long-term equity investors. Chart I-8Healthcare Profits In A ##br##Major Uptrend Chart I-9European Personal Products Profits In A Major Uptrend Chart I-10European Clothing Profits In A Major Uptrend Fractal Trading System* Given the outsized moves in markets over the past month, all assets have become highly correlated making it more difficult to find candidates for trend reversals. Chart I-11Nickel Vs. Copper However, we find that some relative moves within the commodity complex have not correlated with risk on/off. Specifically, the underperformance of nickel versus copper is technically stretched, so this week’s recommended trade is long nickel / short copper, setting a profit target of 11 percent with a symmetrical stop-loss. The rolling 1-year win ratio now stands at 67 percent. When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report “Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model,” dated  December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com.   Dhaval Joshi Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 0.382 = 1- phi. Where phi is the Golden Ratio, defined as the ratio of successive Fibonacci numbers in the limit. Alternatively, phi =1 / (1 + phi). 2 The seven-quarter sell-off in the DAX (capital only) to March 18 2020 was 39.4 percent, so a full retracement rally equals 65.1 percent, and a 0.382 geometric retracement equals 21.1 percent. Fractal Trading System   Cyclical Recommendations Structural Recommendations Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields   Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations  

Highlights Oil prices are up strongly from their lows, but conditions for a durable bottom may not yet be in place. The main hiccup is that an air pocket will likely remain under global oil demand until most social-distancing measures are lifted. That said, most petrocurrencies offer a significant valuation cushion, making them attractive for longer-term investors. We will look to buy a basket of petrocurrencies on further weakness. The Asian economies that were closer to the epicenter of the epidemic are likely to recover faster than the West. Transport and electricity energy demand should pick up in these economies faster. AUD/CAD and AUD/EUR should benefit from this dynamic. CAD/USD is likely to weaken in the short term as Canadian crude remains trapped in Alberta, but then strengthen as the global economy recovers. Feature Chart I-1Massive Liquidation In Crude Oil Just over a decade ago, the price of crude oil was firmly above $100 per barrel. Fast forward to today and many blends are trading south of $20 (Chart I-1). The extraordinary drop has sent many petrocurrencies, including the Norwegian krone, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar, into freefall. The oil industry has been hit by multiple tectonic shocks, including a sudden stop in economic activity, a fallout from the OPEC cartel, divestment from ESG funds, and falling oil intensity in many economies. Meanwhile, the trading of petrocurrencies is also complicated by a shifting production landscape among many oil producers. For investors, three key questions will determine whether petrocurrencies are a buy: Have we approached capitulation lows in oil prices? If so, what will be the velocity and magnitude of the demand recovery? Will the correlation between oil and petrocurrencies still hold once the dust settles? Have We Approached Capitulation Lows? In terms of magnitude and duration, yes. Over the last two decades, oil price drawdowns have tended to last between 8 and 20 months before a durable rally ensues. The oil price collapse from July 2008 to February 2009 lasted around 8 months. The decline from June 2014 to February 2016 was much longer, around 20 months. Given the October 2018 peak in oil prices, we should be very close to the bottom in terms of duration. Remarkably, in all episodes, the peak-to-trough decline in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) blend has been around 75% (Chart I-2).   However, since the 1970s, oil has moved in a well-defined pattern of a 10-year bull market, followed by a 20-year bear market (Chart I-3). Assuming the bear market in oil began just after the global financial crisis, it does suggest that even if prices do recover, it will most likely be a bear-market rally. That said, history also suggests that these bear market rallies in oil can be quite powerful, with prices often doubling or trebling. As we go to press, oil prices are up a remarkable 18% from their lows Chart I-2Similar In Magnitude To Prior Oil Crashes Chart I-3Oil Prices Are Close To Capitulation Lows What is different this time? Aside from a breakdown in OPEC+, a few other factors are in play. This alters the timing and duration of an intermediate-term bottom: Any coordinated supply response will need to involve the US to be viable.1 The OPEC+ cartel, specifically the alliance between Russia and Saudi Arabia, is broken. Chart I-4 illustrates why. While being the stewards of global oil production discipline, there has been one sole benefactor – the US. In 2010, only about 6% of global crude output came from the US. Collectively, Canada, Norway and Mexico shared about 10% of the oil market. Meanwhile, OPEC’s market share sat just north of 40%. Fast forward to today and the US produces around 15% of global crude, having grabbed market share from many other countries. Chart I-4US Is The Big Winner From OPEC Cuts As we go to press, there are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have come to an agreement. However, the history of OPEC alliances suggests that it is fraught with broken promises.  Oil still trades above cash costs for many producing countries, meaning the incentive to boost production in times of a demand shock is quite strong (Chart I-5). Ditto if oil prices are recovering. Oil futures are in a massive contango, with WTI trading close to $40 per barrel two years out. This incentivizes players with strong balance sheets to keep the taps open. The oil curve needs to shift significantly lower, probably pushing some blends into negative spot territory, in order to force production discipline on some players.   Chart I-5Oil Still Trading Above Cost Of Production The dollar has been strong, meaning the local-currency revenues of oil producers have been cushioning part of the downdraft in oil prices. This could sustain production longer than would otherwise be the case, especially in a liquidation phase. The New York Fed’s model suggests that most of the downdraft in oil prices since 2010 has been due to rising supply (Chart I-6). Chart I-6Oil Downdraft Driven By Supply Both Saudi Arabia and Russia have low public debt and ample foreign exchange reserves. This buys them time in terms of dealing with a prolonged period of low prices. We know there will be massive economic pain from the oil price collapse (Chart I-7). The good news is that with the economic slowdown already in place, it may well be the catalyst needed to enforce any agreement put into effect. Chart I-7The Coming Economic Pain For Oil Producers While the positive correlation between oil prices and petrocurrencies has weakened in recent years, it has been re-established during the current downturn. More importantly, should production cuts be led by US shale producers, this will redistribute market share to OPEC and other non-OPEC members, allowing their currencies to benefit. Should production cuts be led by US shale producers, this will redistribute market share to OPEC and other non-OPEC members, allowing their currencies to benefit.  In statistical terms, petrocurrencies had a near-perfect positive correlation with oil around the time US production was about to take off (Chart I-8). Since then, that correlation has fallen from around 0.9 to about 0.3. Chart I-8Falling Correlation Between Petrocurrencies And The US Dollar Take the Mexican peso as an example. Since 2013, Mexico has become a net importer of oil, as the US moves towards becoming a net exporter (Chart I-9). This explains why the positive correlation between the peso and oil prices has weakened significantly in recent years. Put another way, rising oil prices benefit the US industrial base much more than in the past, while the benefits for countries like Canada and Mexico are slowly fading. Chart I-9A Shifting Export Landscape That said, in the case of Canada and Norway, petroleum still represents over 20% and 50% of total exports. For Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran or Venezuela, the number is much higher. Therefore, it is easy to see why a big fluctuation in the price of oil can have deep repercussions for their external balances. Historically, getting the price of oil right was usually the most important step in any petrocurrency forecast. Bottom Line: Both the CAD and NOK remain positively correlated with oil. So do the Russian ruble and the Colombian peso. This correlation should remain in place if oil prices put in a definitive bottom, and it should strengthen if production cuts are led by the US. When Will Oil Demand Recover? Oil demand tends to follow the ebb and flow of the business cycle, with demand having slowed sharply on the back of a sudden stop in economic activity. Transport constitutes the largest share of global petroleum demand. Ergo the economic lockdowns have brought a lot of freighters, bulk ships, large crude carriers and heavy trucks to a halt. Encouragingly, passenger traffic in China has started to pick up as the number of new Covid-19 cases flattens, and the country is gradually reopening for business. There has also been an improvement in the manufacturing data. All eyes will be watching if the relaxation of measures in China lead to a second wave of infections. Otherwise, should the Western economies follow the Chinese recovery path, then the world will be open for business by the end of the summer (Chart I-10). One way to play an early restart in Asia relative to the West is to go long the Australian dollar, relative to a basket of the Canadian dollar and the euro.  Part of the slowdown in global demand is being reflected through elevated oil inventories. However, part of the inventory building has also been a function of refinery maintenance (Chart I-11). Chinese oil imports continue to hold up well, and should easier financial conditions continue to put a floor under the manufacturing cycle, overall consumption will follow suit. Chart I-10Some Optimism For The West Chart I-11Watch For A Peak In Inventories One way to play an early restart in Asia relative to the West is to go long the Australian dollar, relative to a basket of the Canadian dollar and the euro. There are three key reasons which support this trade: Liquefied natural gas will become the most important component of Australia’s export mix in the next few years (Chart I-12). As Beijing restarts its economy and electricity production picks up, Aussie exports will benefit. Beijing has a clear environmental push to shift its economy away from coal electricity generation and towards natural gas. The massive drop in pollution resulting from the shutdown will all but assure that this push occurs sooner rather than later. Chart I-12LNG Will Be A Game-Changer For Australia There was already pent-up demand in the Australian economy going into the crisis, given the destruction of the capital stock from the fires. With an economy that was already running well below capacity, construction activity should see a V-shaped rebound once social distancing measures are relaxed. As the currency of the now largest oil producer in the world, the US dollar is becoming a petrocurrency itself. In this new paradigm, a better strategy for playing oil upside is to be long a basket of energy producers versus energy consumers. AUD/EUR benefits from this. Chart I-13 shows that a currency basket of oil producers versus consumers has both had a strong positive correlation with the oil price and has outperformed a traditional petrocurrency basket. Rising oil prices are a terms-of-trade boost for oil exporters but lead to demand destruction for oil importers. Chart I-13Buy Oil Producers Versus Oil Consumers Eventually, a pickup in manufacturing activity will be a global phenomenon rather than localized within Asia. When this happens, other petrocurrencies will begin to benefit. This will especially be the case for producers where production is more landlocked. Bottom Line: A recovery in global transport will help revive oil demand. This should be positive for oil prices in general and petrocurrencies in particular. One way to play the recovery in Asia relative to the West for now is to go long AUD/CAD and AUD/EUR. On CAD, NOK, MXN, RUB And COP Chart I-14NOK Will Outperform CAD While Canadian crude is likely to remain trapped in the oil sands, North Sea crude will face less transportation bottlenecks in the near term. This suggests the path of least resistance for CAD/NOK is down (Chart I-14). We were stopped out of our short CAD/NOK trade, but still recommend this position as a play on this dynamic. We are already long the Norwegian krone versus a basket of the euro and dollar. CAD/USD has been displaying a series of higher lows since the March 18 bottom, but the double-top formation in place since then suggests we could see some weakness in the near term. Should CAD/USD retest its recent lows, driven by a relapse in oil prices, we will be buyers.  Many petrocurrencies, including the Mexican and Colombian pesos, have become quite cheap and are attractive on a longer-term basis (Chart I-15). Given the uncertainty surrounding the nearer-term outlook, we a placing a limit buy on a broad basket of these currencies at -5%. Should oil prices retest the lows in the coming weeks/months, it will imply an 18% drop. Given the correlation between petrocurrencies and oil of 0.3, this suggests a 5.3% move lower.  Chart I-15ASome Petrocurrencies Are Very Cheap Chart I-15BSome Petrocurrencies Are Very Cheap Bottom Line: Place a limit buy on a petrocurrency basket at -5%.    Chester Ntonifor Foreign Exchange Strategist chestern@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see Commodity & Energy Strategy Weekly Report, “The Birth Of WOPEC,” dated April 9, 2020, available at ces.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 Recent data in the US have been negative: The unemployment rate soared from 3.5% to 4.4% in March. Nonfarm payrolls recorded a total loss of 701K jobs, the first decline in payrolls since September 2010. The NFIB business optimism index plunged from 104.5 to 96.4 in March. Initial jobless claims surged by 6.6 million last week, higher than the expected 5.3 million. Michigan consumer sentiment declined to 71 from 89.1 in April. The DXY index fell by 0.7% this week. Risk assets have recovered, fueled by an extra USD $2.3 trillion stimulus from the Federal Reserve. The lesson we are learning is that the deeper the perceived slowdown, the more the Fed will do to assuage any economic damage. As for currencies, what matters is relative monetary policies. The key variable to stem the rise in the USD is that the liquidity crisis does not morph into a solvency one. Report Links: Capitulation? - April 3, 2020 The Dollar Funding Crisis - March 19, 2020 Are Competitive Devaluations Next? - March 6, 2020 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 Recent data in the euro area have been mostly negative: Markit services PMI fell further to 26.4 in March from 28.4 the previous month. The Sentix investor confidence dived to -42.9 from -17.1 in April. Moreover, the Sentix current situation index fell from -15 to -66 in April, while the outlook index moved up slightly from -20 to -15. EUR/USD appreciated by 0.5% this week. The euro zone members failed to reach an agreement on the joint EU debt issuance. On the other hand, the ECB adopted an unprecedented set of collateral measures to mitigate the negative impacts from COVID-19 across the euro area, including easing collateral conditions for credit claims, reduction of collateral valuation haircut, and waiver to accept Greek sovereign debt instruments as collateral.  Report Links: On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 On Money Velocity, EUR/USD And Silver - October 11, 2019 Japanese Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Recent data in Japan have been negative: Consumer confidence fell to 30.9 from 38.4 in March. Labor cash earnings grew by 1% year-on-year in February, but slowed from 1.2% in January. The Eco Watchers Survey current index fell from 27.4 to 14.2 in March. The outlook index also declined from 24.6 to 18.8. The Japanese yen fell by 1% against the US dollar this week. On Wednesday, the BoJ announced that it would scale back some non-urgent operations such as long-term research and studies for academic papers, following the government’s decision to declare a state of emergency. The Reuters poll forecasted the Q1 GDP to shrink by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter and Q2 by 6.1%. Report Links: The Near-Term Bull Case For The Dollar - February 28, 2020 Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Recent data in the UK have been dismal: Markit construction PMI plunged to 39.3 from 52.6 in March. GfK consumer confidence crashed to -34 from -9 in March. Total trade balance (including EU) shifted to a deficit of £2.8 billion from a surplus of £2.4 billion in February. The goods trade deficit widened from £5.8 billion to £11.5 billion. GBP/USD rose by 0.6% this week. After being told to cut dividends last week, the UK banks are now pressuring the BoE on fresh capital relief to help fight the COVID-19. The BoE has also agreed to temporarily lend the government money, funded through money printing. The details suggest the operations are temporary, but the BoE might be the first central bank to formally step closer to MMT. Report Links: Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 A Few Trade Ideas - Sept. 27, 2019 United Kingdom: Cyclical Slowdown Or Structural Malaise? - Sept. 20, 2019 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Recent data in Australia have been negative: The AiG services performance index fell from 47 to 38.7 in March. Imports and exports both slumped 4% and 5% month-on-month respectively in February. The trade surplus narrowed from A$5.2 billion to A$4.4 billion.  The Australian dollar surged by 3.8% against the US dollar, making it the best performing G10 currency this week. The RBA held interest rate steady at 0.25% on Tuesday, while warning the country is in for a “very large” economic contraction. Lowe also suggested that the economy will “much depend on the success of the efforts to contain the virus and how long the social distancing measures need to remain in place”. Report Links: On AUD And CNY - January 17, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 A Contrarian View On The Australian Dollar - May 24, 2019 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Recent data in New Zealand have been dismal: NZIER business confidence survey reported that a net 70% of firms expect general business conditions to deteriorate in Q1, compared to 21% in the previous quarter. Electronic card retail sales contracted by 1.8% year-on-year in March, down from 8.6% growth the previous month. The New Zealand dollar recovered by 1.7% against the US dollar this week. In addition to the NZ$30 billion purchases of central government bonds, the RBNZ is stepping up the QE program by offering to buy up to NZ$3 billion of local government bonds to support liquidity. Report Links: Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Place A Limit Sell On DXY At 100 - November 15, 2019 USD/CNY And Market Turbulence - August 9, 2019 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Recent data in Canada have been dismal: Bloomberg Nanos confidence fell further from 46.9 to 42.7 the week ended April 3. Housing starts increased by 195K year-on-year in March, down from 211K in February. Building permits contracted by 7.3% month-on-month in February. On the labor market front, the pandemic has caused the unemployment rate to rise sharply from 5.6% to 7.8% in March, higher than the expected 7.2%. Employment fell by more than one million (-1,011,000 or -5.3%). The Canadian dollar rose by 1.2% against the US dollar this week, supported by the tentative rebound in oil prices. The BoC spring Business Outlook Survey shows that business sentiment had softened even before COVID-19 concerns intensified in Canada. The overall survey indicator fell below 0 to -0.68 in Q1. Businesses tied to the energy sector were hit the most due to falling oil prices. Report Links: The Loonie: Upside Versus The Dollar, But Downside At The Crosses Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Making Money With Petrocurrencies - November 8, 2019 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Recent data in Switzerland have been negative: Total sight deposits were little changed at CHF 627 billion for the week ended April 3. The unemployment rate jumped from 2.5% to 2.9% in March, above expectations of 2.8%. The number of total unemployed increased by 15%, now reaching 136K. The Swiss franc appreciated by 0.6% against the US dollar this week. The Swiss government forecasted the output to slump 10% this year under the worst-case scenario, given the incoming data proved worse than expected. On the positive side, the government said it would gradually relax restriction measures later this month should the current situation improve. Report Links: On The DXY Breakout, Euro, And Swiss Franc - February 21, 2020 Currency Market Signals From Gold, Equities And Flows - January 31, 2020 Portfolio Tweaks Before The Chinese New Year - January 24, 2020 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Recent data in Norway have been negative: The unemployment rate surged to 10.7% in March from 2.3%. Manufacturing output fell by 0.5% month-on-month in February. Headline inflation fell from 0.9% to 0.7% year-on-year in March, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.1%.  The Norwegian krone rose by 2.8% against the US dollar this week, up 18% from its recent low three weeks ago. Norway will likely relax some restrictions later this month while the ban on public gatherings will still remain in place. The loosening of COVID-19 measures, together with oil prices recovering and cheap valuations all underpin the Norwegian krone in the long run. Please refer to our front section this week for more detailed analysis. Report Links: Building A Protector Currency Portfolio - February 7, 2020 On Oil, Growth And The Dollar - January 10, 2020 Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1   Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2   Recent data in Sweden have been mixed: Industrial production fell by 0.2% year-on-year in February. Manufacturing new orders increased by 6% year-on-year in February. Household consumption increased by 2.3% year-on-year in February, up from 1.6% the previous month. The Swedish krona increased by 1% against the US dollar this week. The recent efforts in buying up bonds by the Riksbank to increase liquidity amid COVID-19 is likely to increase the debt burden in Sweden. The stock of Swedish Treasury bills held by the Riksbank is estimated to be SEK 300 billion by the end of this year, compared to only 55 billion in February. Report Links: Updating Our Balance Of Payments Monitor - November 29, 2019 Where To Next For The US Dollar? - June 7, 2019 Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Limit Orders Closed Trades

Highlights Recommended Allocation The outlook for markets over the next few months is highly uncertain. On the optimistic side, new COVID-19 cases are probably close to peaking (for now), and so equities could continue to rally. But there are many risks too. Growth numbers will be horrendous for some months. Second-round effects (corporate defaults, problems in EM and with euro zone banks, for example) will emerge. We recommend a balanced portfolio, robust both for risk-on rallies and a further sell-off. We stay overweight equities versus bonds. Government bonds will not provide significantly positive returns even in a severe recession. Thus, over the next 12-months, equities are likely to outperform them. But we leaven the equity overweight with a “minimum volatility” strategy, overweight the low-beta US market, and more stable sectors such as Healthcare and Technology. Within bonds, we stay underweight government bonds, and raise Investment Grade credit to overweight, given the Fed’s backstop. Even in a risk-on rally, government yields will not rise quickly so we recommend a neutral stance on duration. The massive stimulus will eventually be inflationary, so we recommend TIPS, which are very cheaply valued. We are overweight cash and gold as hedges against further market turbulence. Among alternatives, macro hedge funds and farmland look attractively defensive now. We would start to look for opportunities in private debt (especially distressed debt) as the recession advances. Commodity futures are attractive as an inflation hedge. Overview Playing The Optionality From the start of the crisis, we argued that markets would bottom around the time when new cases of COVID-19 peaked. At the end of March, there were clear signs that this would happen in April, with Italy and Spain having probably already peaked and the US, if it follows the same trajectory, being only two or three weeks away (Chart 1). Chart 1Close To A Peak In New Cases? But what happens next? A relief rally is likely, as often happens in bear markets – and indeed one probably started with the three-day 18% rise in US equities in the last week of March. Note, for example, the strong rallies in spring 2008 and summer 2000 before the second leg down in those bear markets (Chart 2). Chart 2Mid Bear Market Rallies Are Common However, there is still a lot of potential bad news for markets to digest. Global growth has collapsed, as a result of people in many countries being forced to stay at home. US GDP growth in Q2 could fall by as much as 10% quarter-on-quarter (unannualized). Horrendously bad data will come as a shock to investors over the coming months. Despite the unprecedented stimulus measures from central banks and governments worldwide (Chart 3), nasty second-round effects are inevitable. Given the high level of corporate debt in the US, defaults will rise, to perhaps above the level of 2008-9 (Chart 4). EM borrowers have almost $4 trillion of foreign-currency debt outstanding, and will struggle to service this after the rise in the dollar and wider credit spreads. Euro area banks are poorly capitalized and have high non-performing debt levels left over from the last recession; they will be hit by a new wave of bankruptcies. Undoubtedly, there are some banks and hedge funds sitting on big trading losses after the drastic sell-off and stomach-churning volatility. Mid-East sovereign wealth funds will unload more assets to fill fiscal holes left by the collapsed oil price. Chart 3Massive Stimulus Everywhere Chart 4Possible Second-Round Effects     There is also the question of when the pandemic will end. We are not epidemiologists, so find this hard to judge (but please refer to the answers from an authority in our recent Special Report1). The coronavirus will disappear only when either enough people in a community have had the disease to produce “herd immunity,” or there is a vaccine – which is probably 18 months away.  Some epidemiologists argue that in the UK and Italy 40%-60% of the population may have already had COVID-19 and are therefore immune.2 But an influential paper from researchers at Imperial College suggested that repeated periods of lockdown will be necessary each time a new wave of cases emerges3 (Chart 5). Chart 5More Waves Of The Pandemic To Come? At the end of March, global equities were only 23% off their mid-February record high – and were down only 34% even at their low point. That doesn’t seem like enough to fully discount all the potential pitfalls over coming months. This sort of highly uncertain environment is where portfolio construction comes in. We recommend that clients position their portfolios with optionality to remain robust in any likely outcome. There are likely to be rallies in risk assets over coming months, particularly when the coronavirus shows signs of petering out. There is significant asymmetric career risk for portfolio managers here. No portfolio manager will be fired for missing the pandemic and underperforming year-to-date (though some may because their firms go out of business or retrench). But a PM who misses a V-shaped rebound in risk assets over the rest of the year could lose their job.  This will provide a strong incentive to try to pick the bottom. Chart 6Bond Yields Can't Go Much Lower Government bond yields are close to their theoretical lows. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 0.6% and it unlikely to fall below 0% even in a severe recession (since the Fed has stated that it will not cut short-term rates below 0%). In other countries, the low for yields has turned out to be around -0.3% to -0.9% (Chart 6). The total return from risk-free bonds, therefore, will be close to zero even in a dire economic environment (Table 1). This means that the call between bonds and equities comes down to whether equity prices will be higher or lower in 12-months. Quite likely, they will be higher. Given this, and the optionality of participating in rebounds, we maintain our overweight on equities versus bonds. We would, however, be inclined to lower our equity weighting in the event of a big rally in stocks over the next few months.   Table 1Not Much Room For Upside From Bonds Table 2Bear Markets Are Often Much Worse But there are also many downside risks. In the past two recessions, global equities fell by 50%-60% (Table 2). Despite the much worse economic environment this time, the peak-to-trough decline is so far much more limited. Moreover, valuations are not particularly compelling yet (Chart 7). To leaven our overall overweight on equities, we recommend a “minimum volatility” strategy, with tilts towards the low-beta US market, and some more defensive sectors such as Healthcare and Technology. China and China-related stocks also look somewhat attractive, since that country got over the coronavirus first, and is responding with a big increase in infrastructure spending (Chart 8). To hedge against downside risk, we also leave in place our overweights in cash and gold. Chart 7Equities Are Not Yet Super Cheap Chart 8China Infra Spending To Rise Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist garry@bcaresearch.com What Our Clients Are Asking – About The Coronavirus Have We Seen The Bottom In Equity Markets?  Chart 9Watch Closely COVID-19 After hitting a low on March 23, global equities have recovered more than one-third of their loss during this particularly rapid bear market, in response to the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus around the globe. It’s very hard to pinpoint the exact bottom of any equity bear market.  The current one is particularly difficult in two ways: First, it was largely due to the exogenous shock from the COVID-19 pandemic. If history is any guide, we will first need to see a peak in infected cases globally before we can call a true bottom in equities (Chart 9). Second, the massive and coordinated response from central banks and governments around the world is unprecedented, as the global “lockdown” freezes the global economy. It’s encouraging to see the Chinese PMI bouncing back to 52 in March after a sharp drop to deep contraction level in February. However, the bounce back was mostly from production. Both export orders and imports remain weak. US initial jobless claims have skyrocketed to 3.3 million. If the peak of infection in the US follows similar patterns in China and Italy, then it would be another encouraging sign even if the US economic data continued to get worse. BCA Research’s base-case is for this recession to have a U-shaped recovery. This means that equity markets are likely to be range bound until we have a better handle on the future course of the pandemic. As such, we suggest investors actively manage risk by adding to positions when the S&P 500 gets close to 2250 and reducing risk when it gets close to 2750 during the bottoming process. What Will Be The Long-Term Consequences? Maybe it seems too early to think about this, but the coronavirus pandemic will change the world at least as profoundly as did the 1970s inflation, 9/11, and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Here are some things that might change: Chart 10Government Debt Will Rise Significantly Government debt levels will rise dramatically, as a result of the huge fiscal packages being (rightly) implemented by many countries. In the US, after the $2 trillion spending increase and a fall in tax revenues, the annual fiscal deficit will rise from 6% of GDP to 15%-20%. Government debt/GDP could exceed the 122% reached at the end of WW2 (Chart 10). Ultimately, central banks will have to monetize this debt, perhaps by capping long-term rates or by buying a substantial part of issuance. This could prove to be inflationary. Households and companies may want to build in greater cushions and no longer live “on the edge”. US households have repaired their balance-sheets since 2009, raising the savings rate to 8% (Chart 11). But surveys suggest that almost one-third of US households have less than $1,000 in savings. They may, therefore, now save more. This could depress consumption further in coming years. Companies have maximized profitability over the past decades, under pressure from shareholders, by keeping inventories, spare cash, and excess workers to a minimum. Given the sudden stop caused by the pandemic (and who is to say that there will not be more pandemics in future), companies may want to protect themselves from future shocks. The inventory/sales ratio, which had been falling for decades, has picked up a little since the GFC (Chart 12). Inventory levels are likely to be raised further. Companies may also run less leveraged balance-sheets, rather than hold the maximum amount of debt their targeted credit rating can bear. This is all likely to reduce long-term profit growth. Chart 11Households May Become Even More Cautious Chart 12Companies Will Run With Higher Inventories The pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability of healthcare systems. China still spends only 5% of GDP on health, compared to 9% in Brazil and 8% in South Africa (Chart 13). The lack of intensive care beds and woefully inadequate epidemic plans in the US and other developed countries will also need to be tackled. Healthcare stocks should benefit. Chart 13Healthcare Spending Will Need To Rise How Risky Are Euro Area Banks? Chart 14Euro Area Banks Are Quite Fragile Banks in the euro area have underperformed their developed market peers by over 65% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (Chart 14, panel 1). Their structural issues – many of which we highlighted in a previous Special Report – remain unsolved.  Euro area banks remain highly leveraged compared to their US counterparts (panel 2). Their exposure to emerging economies is high (panel 3), and they continue to be a major provider of European corporate funding. US corporates, by contrast, are mainly funded through capital markets. The sector is also highly fragmented with both outward and inward M&A activity declining post the GFC. Profitability continues to be a key long-term concern, despite having recently stabilized (panel 4). The ECB’s ultra-dovish monetary stance and negative policy rates do not help banks’ performance either.  Banks’ relative return has been correlated to the ECB policy rate since the GFC (panel 5). Following the coronavirus outbreak, the ECB is likely to remain dovish for a prolonged period. The ECB’s recently announced measures should, however, provide banks with ample liquidity to hold and spur economic activity through increased lending to households and corporates. Absent consolidation in the European banking sector, competition is likely to dampen banks’ profits. Additionally, the severity of the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus outbreak will determine if their significant exposure to emerging economies, the energy sector, and domestic corporates will hurt them further. For now, we would recommend investors underweight euro area banks. Where Can I Get Income In This Low-Yield World? Chart 15The Bear Market Has Unveiled Attractive Income Opportunities For long-term investors who can tolerate price volatility, there is currently an opportunity to invest in high-income securities at relatively cheap prices. Below we list three of our favorite assets to obtain income returns: Dividend Aristocrats: The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is composed of S&P 500 companies which have increased dividend payouts for 25 consecutive years or more. In order to provide such a steady stream of income through a such long timeframe, and even provide dividend increases in recessions, the companies in this index need to have a track record of running cashflow-rich businesses. Thus, the risk of dividend cuts is relatively low in these companies. Currently, the Dividend Aristocrat Index has a trailing dividend yield of 3.2% (Chart 15 – top panel). Fallen Angels: As we discussed in our November Special Report, fallen angels have attractive characteristics that separate them from the rest of the junk market. They tend to have longer maturities as well as a higher credit quality than the overall index. Crucially, fallen angels often enter the high-yield index at a discount, since certain institutional investors are forced to sell them when they are no longer IG-rated (middle panel). Thus, selected fallen angels which are not at a substantial risk of default could be a tremendous income opportunity. Currently fallen angels have a yield to worst of 10.65%. Sovereign US dollar EM debt: Our Emerging Markets Strategy service has argued that most EM sovereigns are unlikely to default on their debts, and instead will use their currencies as a release valve to ease financial conditions in their economies. Thus, hard-currency sovereign issues could prove to be attractive income investments if held to maturity. The bottom panel of Chart 15 (panel 3) shows the current yield-to-worst of the EM sovereign hard currency debt that has an overweight rating by our Emerging Markets service. Global Economy Chart 16The Collapse Begins Overview: The global economy in early January looked on the cusp of a strong manufacturing pickup, driven by the natural cycle and by moderate fiscal stimulus out of China. The coronavirus changed all that. We now face a recession of a severity unseen since the 1930s. The fiscal and monetary response has been similarly rapid and radical. This will tackle immediate liquidity and even solvency risks. But, with consumers in many countries confined to their homes, a recovery is entirely dependent on when the number of new cases of COVID-19 peaks. In an optimistic scenario, this might be in late April or May. On a pessimistic one, the pandemic will continue in waves for several quarters.  US: It is highly likely that the NBER will eventually declare that the US entered recession in March 2020. With many states in lockdown, consumption (which comprises 70% of GDP) will slump: only half of consumption is non-discretionary (rent, food, utility bills etc.); the other half is likely to shrink significantly while lockdowns continue. Judged by the 3.3 million initial claims in the week of March 16-21, unemployment will jump from its February level of 3.5% very rapidly towards 10%. Fiscal and monetary stimulus measures will cushion the downside (enabling households to pay rent and companies to service debt). But whether the recession is V-shaped or prolonged will be dependent on the length of the pandemic. Euro Area: European manufacturing growth was showing clear signs of picking up before the coronavirus pandemic hit (Chart 16 panel 1). But lockdowns in Italy, Spain and other countries will clearly push growth way into negative territory. The severity is clear from the first datapoints to reflect March activity, such as the ZEW survey. The ECB, after an initially disappointing response, has promised EUR750 billion (and more if needed) in bond purchases. The fiscal response so far has been more lukewarm, although Germany has now scrapped its requirement to run a budget surplus. One key question: will the stronger nothern European economies agree to “euro bonds”, joint and severally guaranteed, to finance fiscal spending in the weaker periphery?   Chart 17...With Chinese Data Leading The Way Japan: Japan’s economy was performing poorly even before the coronavirus pandemic, mainly because of the side-effects of last October’s consumption tax hike, and the slowdown in China (Chart 17, panel 2). So far, Japan has seen fewer cases of COIVD-19 than other large countries, but this may just reflect a lack of testing. Japan also has less room for policy response. Government debt is already 250% of GDP. The Bank of Japan has moderately increased purchases of equity ETFs and remains committed to maintaining government bonds yields around 0%. But Japan seems culturally and institutionally unable to roll out the sort of ultra-radical measures taken in other developed economies. Emerging Markets: China’s economy was severely disrupted in January and February, as reflected in an unprecedented collapse of the Caixin Services PMI to 26.5 (Chart 17, panel 3). However, big data (such as traffic congestion) suggest that in March people were gradually returning to work and companies restarting manufacturing operations. Q1 GDP growth will clearly be negative, and growth for the year may be barely above 0%. The authorities are ramping up infrastructure spending, which BCA expects to grow by 6-8% this year.4 Interest rates have also fallen below their 2015 levels, but not yet to their 2009 lows. Both fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be eased further. Elsewhere in Emerging Markets, the key question is whether central banks will cut rates to support rapidly weakening economies, or keep rates steady to prop up collapsing currencies. This is not an easy choice. Interest Rates: Central banks in developed markets have cut rates to their lowest possible levels with the Fed, for example, slashing from 1.25%-1.5% to 0%-0.25% within just 10 days in March. The Fed has signalled that it will not go below zero. Short-term policy rates globally, therefore, have essentially hit their lower bounds. Long-term rates have been volatile, with the 10-year US Treasury yield swinging down to 0.6% before jumping to 1.2%. While uncertainty continues, long-term risk-free rates are unlikely to rise substantially and, in the event of a prolonged severe recession, we would see the US 10-year yield falling to zero – but no lower. Global Equities Chart 18Is The V-Shaped Recovery Sustainable? What’s Next?  Global equities lost 32.8% year-to-date as of March 23, 2020. All countries and sectors in our coverage were in the red. Even the best performing country (Japan) and the best performing global sector (Consumer Staples) lost 26.7% and 23.2% respectively.  From March 24 to March 26, however, equities made the best three-day gains since the Great Depression, recouping about one-third of the loss,  even though US initial jobless claims came in at 3.3 million and also the US reported a higher number of cumulative infected people than China, with a much higher number of deaths per million people (Chart 18). So have we reached the bottom of the bear market? Is this “V-shaped” recovery sustainable? How should an investor construct a multi-asset global portfolio that’s sound for the next 9-12 months given the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world? Based on our long-held philosophy of taking risks where risks will most likely be rewarded, we are most comfortable taking risk at the asset class level, by overweighting equities versus bonds, together with overweights in cash and gold as hedges. Within the equity portfolio, we are reducing risk by making the following adjustments: Upgrade US to overweight from underweight financed by downgrading the euro zone to underweight from overweight. Upgrade Tech to overweight, while closing two overweight bets on Financials and Energy and one underweight on consumer staples to benchmark weighting.   Country Allocation: Becoming More Defensive Chart 19US And Euro Area: Trading Places In December 2019 we added risk by upgrading the euro area to overweight and Emerging Markets to neutral based on our macro view that the global economy was on its way to recovery.  Data releases in January did show signs of recovery in the global economy. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has changed the global landscape, and we are clearly in a recession now.  When conditions change, we change our recommendations. We must make a judgment call because the economic data will not give us any timely, useful readings for some time to come. Back in December, the key reason to upgrade the euro area was the recovery of China which flows into the exports of the euro area. We think China will continue to stimulate its economy. However, given the global growth collapse, the “flow through” effect to the euro area will be delayed for some time. We prefer to play the China effect directly rather than indirectly. That’s why we maintain the neutral weighting of EM versus DM, but downgrade the euro area to underweight, and upgrade US to overweight. We also note the two following factors: First, as shown in Chart 19, panel 1, the relative performance between the euro area and the US is highly correlated with the relative performance between global Financials and Technology. This is not surprising given the sector composition of the two region’s equity indices. As such, this country adjustment is in line with our sector adjustment of upgrading Technology and downgrading Financials. Second, with a lower beta, US equities provide a better defense when economic uncertainty and financial market volatility are high. The risk to this adjustment, however, is valuation. As shown in panel 4, euro area valuation is extremely cheap compared to the US. However, PMI releases as well as forward earnings estimates are likely to get worse again before they get better, given the region’s reliance on exports to China and the structural issues in its banking system. Global Sector Allocation: Getting Closer To Benchmark Chart 20Reducing Sector Bets We make four changes in the global sector portfolio to reduce sector bets, since we do not have a high conviction given market volatility and our house view that recovery out of this recession will be U-shaped. These are downgrading Financials to neutral, while upgrading Technology to overweight. We also close the overweight in Energy and underweight in Consumer Staples, leaving them both at benchmark weighting. Financials: We upgraded Financials in October last year as an upside hedge. This move did not pan out as bond yields plummeted. BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service upgraded duration to neutral from underweight on March 10 as they do not see a high likelihood for yields to move significantly higher over the next 9-12 months. This does not bode well for Financials’ performance (Chart 20, panel 1). Even though the Fed and other central banks have come in as the lenders of last resort, loan growth could be weak going forward and non-performing loans could increase, especially in the euro area. Valuation, however, is very attractive. Technology: DRAM prices started to improve even before the COVID-19 outbreak. The global lockdown to fight against the pandemic is further spurring demand for both software and hardware, which should support better earnings growth (panel 2). The risk is that relative valuation is still not cheap, even though absolute valuation has come down after the recent selloff. Energy:  The outlook for oil prices is too uncertain. The fight between Saudi Arabia and Russia is weighing on the supply side, while the global lockdown is denting demand prospect. The earnings outlook for energy companies is dire, while valuations are very attractive (panel 3). Consumer Staples: This is a classic defensive sector that does well in recessions. In addition, its relative valuation has improved to neutral from very expensive (panel 4).   Government Bonds Chart 21Stay Aside On Duration Upgrade Duration To Neutral. Global bond yields had a wild ride in Q1 as equities plummeted into bear market territory. The 10-year US Treasury yield made an historical low of 0.32% overnight on March 9, then quickly reversed back up to 1.27% on March 18, closing the quarter at 0.67%, compared to 1.88% at the beginning of the quarter (Chart 21). We are already in a recession and BCA’s house view is for a U-shaped recovery. This implies that global bond yields will likely follow a bottoming process similar to global equities, as new infections peak and high-frequency economic data start to recover. As such, we upgrade our duration call to neutral, to be in line with the position of BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy (USBS) service. Favor Linkers Vs. Nominal Bonds.  The combined effect of the plummet in oil prices and the coronavirus outbreak has crushed inflation expectation to an extremely low level. As shown in Chart 22, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is currently at 0.95%, 88 bps lower than its fair value. The fair value is estimated based on USBS’s Adaptive Expectations Model.  Investors with a 12-month investment horizon should continue to favor TIPS over nominal Treasuries, but those with shorter horizons may be advised to stand aside and wait for the daily number of new COVID-19 cases to reach zero before re-initiating the position. Chart 22TIPS Offer A Ton Of Long-Run Value Extremely Cheap Inflation Protection   Corporate Bonds Chart 23High Quality Junk It is undeniable that the dearth of cashflow caused by the lockdowns will spur a ferocious wave of defaults, particularly in the high-yield sector. It also is not clear that this risk is adequately compensated for. Currently, our US bond strategist believes that spreads are pricing an 11% default rate – in line with the default rate of the 2000/2001 recession. While it is not our base case, a default cycle like 2008, where 14% of companies in the index defaulted is a very clear possibility, as revenues have ground to a halt. However, several positive factors in the junk space must also be considered. Roughly 1% of the high-yield index matures in less than one year, which means that refinancing risk for junk credits should remain relatively subdued (Chart 23, top panel). Moreover, the quality of junk bonds is relatively high compared to previous periods of stress: when the market peaked in 2000 and 2007, Ba-rated credit (the highest quality of high yield) stood at 30% and 37% of the overall index respectively (middle panel). Today this credit quality stands at 49% of the high yield market, indicating a relatively healthier credit profile for junk. Additionally, the high-risk energy sector, which is likely to experience a substantial amount of defaults given the collapse in oil prices, now represents less than 8% of the market capitalization of the whole index (bottom panel). Taking these positive factors into consideration, we believe that a downgrade to underweight is not warranted, and instead we are downgrading high-yield credit from overweight to neutral. What about the investment-grade space? the massive stimulus package announced by the Fed, which effectively allows IG issuers to roll over their entire stock of debt, should provide a backstop to this market. One valid concern is that credit agencies can still downgrade a large number of issuers, making them ineligible to receive support. However, it seems that the credit agencies are aware of how much hinges on their ratings, and are communicating that they will factor the measures taken by various government programs into their credit analysis.5 Thus, considering that spreads are already extended, the Fed is providing unprecedent support and credit agencies are unlikely to knock out many companies out of investment-grade ratings, we are upgrading investment-grade credit from neutral to overweight.   Commodities Chart 24Oil Prices & Politics Do Not Mix Energy (Overweight): Oil markets were driven by supply/demand dynamics until a third factor, politics, shifted the market equilibrium. The recent clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia led to the breakdown of the OPEC 2.0 coalition and to Brent prices tanking by over 60% to $26 in March. The length of this breakdown is unknown. However, we believe the parties are likely to return to the negotiation table within the next months as the damage to countries which are dependent on oil begins to appear. The fiscal budget breakeven point remains much higher than the current oil price – it is around $83 for Saudi Arabia and $47 for Russia. Weakness in global crude demand will continue to put further downward pressure on prices, until economic activity recovers from the COVID-19 slowdown. Our Commodity & Energy Strategists expect the Brent crude oil price to average $36/bbl, with WTI trading some $3-$4 below that, in 2020 (Chart 24, panels 1 & 2). Industrial Metals (Neutral): Industrial metals prices were on track to pick up until the coronavirus hit global activity at the beginning of the year. Prices face further short-term headwinds as global manufacturing remains suppressed. Once the global social distancing ends and activity resumes, industrial metal prices should pick up as fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, especially in China, is implemented (panel 3). Precious Metals (Neutral):  As the coronavirus spread, global risk assets have tumbled. Over the past 12 months, we have recommended investors increase their allocation to gold as both an inflation hedge and a beneficiary of accommodative monetary policy globally. However, we also recently highlighted that gold was reaching overbought territory and that a pullback was possible in the short-term. Nevertheless, investors should continue to maintain gold exposure to hedge against the eventuality that the pandemic is not contained within the coming weeks (panels 4 & 5).   Currencies Chart 25Competing Forces Pushing The US Dollar In Different Directions The USD has gone through a rollercoaster during the coronavirus crisis. Initially, the DXY fell by 4.8%, as rate differentials moved violently against the dollar when the Fed cut rates to zero. But this fall didn’t last long: as liquidity dried up, the cost for dollar funding surged, causing the dollar to skyrocket by almost 8.3%. Since then, the liquidity measures taken by monetary authorities have made the dollar reverse course once more. At this point there are multiple forces pulling the greenback in opposing directions. On the one hand, the collapse in global growth caused by the shutdowns should push the dollar higher. Moreover, momentum – one of the most reliable directional indicators for the dollar – continues to point to further upside (Chart 25, panels 1 and 2). However, the Fed’s generous USD swap lines with other major central banks as well as the massive pool of liquidity deployed have already stabilized funding costs in European and British currency markets, and look poised to do the same in others (Chart 25, panel 3). Thus, since there is no clarity on which force will prevail in this tug of war, we are remaining neutral on the US dollar. That being said, long-term investors can begin to buy some of the most depressed currencies, such as AUD/USD. This cross is currently trading at a 12% discount to PPP according to the OECD – the steepest discount that this currency has had in 17 years. Additionally, our China Investment Strategy projects that China will accelerate infrastructure investment this year to counteract the negative economic effects of the lockdown. This pick up in investment should increase base-metal demand, proving a boost to the Australian dollar in the process.   Alternatives Chart 26Favor Macro Hedge Funds Over Private Equity During Recessions Intro: The coronavirus outbreak caused tremendous market volatility and huge declines in liquid assets. Many clients have asked over the past few weeks which illiquid assets make sense in the current environment. To answer that, we stick to our usual recommendation framework, dividing illiquid assets into three buckets: Return Enhancers: Over the past year, we have been recommending clients to pare back private-equity exposure and increase allocation to hedge funds – particularly macro hedge funds, which often outperform other risky alternative assets during economic slowdowns and recessions (Chart 26, panel 1). Private debt – particularly distressed debt – could become a beneficiary of the current environment. The market turmoil will leave some assets heavily discounted, which can provide an opportunity for nimble funds to make investments at attractive valuations. In a previous Special Report, we highlighted Business Development Companies (BDCs) as a liquid alternative to direct private lending.6 They have taken a hit over the past month, even compared to equities and junk bonds. However, their recovery as markets bottom is usually significant (panels 2 & 3). Inflation Hedges: The coordinated “whatever-it-takes” stance implemented by global governments and central banks to mitigate the coronavirus crisis is likely to have inflationary consequences in the long-term. In that environment, investors should favor commodity futures over real estate (panel 4). As global growth reaccelerates in response to stimulus and resumed manufacturing activity over the next 12 months, the USD should weaken, and commodity prices should rise. Volatility Dampeners: Timberland and farmland remain our long-time favorite assets within this bucket. We have previously shown that both assets outperform other traditional and alternative assets during recessions and equity bear markets (panel 5). Farmland particularly should fare well in this environment, being more insulated from the economy, given food’s inelastic demand Risks To Our View Chart 27Dollar Would Fall In A Strong Recovery Since our recommendations are based on a middle course, hedging both upside and downside risks, we need to consider how extreme these two eventualities could be. On the upside, the most optimistic scenario would be one in which the coronavirus largely disappears after April or May. The massive amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus would produce a jet-fuelled rally in risk assets. The dollar has soared over the past few weeks, as a risk-off currency (Chart 27), and would likely fall sharply. This would be very positive for commodities and Emerging Markets assets. The strong cyclical recovery would also help euro zone and Japanese equities relative to the more defensive US. Value stocks and small caps would outperform. Chart 28Could It Get Worse Than 2008 - Or Even 1932? Downside risks are less easy to forecast. As Warren Buffet wrote in 2002: “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” The shock to the system caused by the coronavirus is certainly larger than the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-9 and could approach that caused by the Great Depression (Chart 28), though hopefully without the egregious policy errors of the latter. It is hard, therefore, to know where problems will emerge: US corporate debt, EM borrowers, and euro zone banks would be our most likely candidates. But there could be others. The oil price is another key uncertainty. Demand could collapse by at least 10% as a result of the severe recession. The breakdown of the production agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia could produce a supply increase of 4-5%.  Given this, Brent crude would fall to $20 a barrel. That would represent a strong tailwind to global recovery (Chart 29). On the other hand, a rapprochement between Saudi and Russia (and even with regulators in Texas) could push oil prices back up again – a positive for markets such as Canada and Mexico. Chart 29Cheap Oil Boosts Growth   Footnotes 1   Please see BCA Special Report, "Questions On The Coronavirus: An Expert Answers," dated 31 March 2020, available at bcaresearch.com 2   https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1 3    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf 4    Please see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Chinese Economic Stimulus: How Much For Infrastructure And The Property Market,” dated 25th March 2020, available at cis.bcaresarch.com 5    A release by Moody’s on March 25 stated that their actions “will be more tempered for higher-rated companies that are likely to benefit from policy intervention or extraordinary government support.” 6    Please see Global Asset Allocation Special Report, “Private Debt: An Investment Primer,” dated June 6, 2018, available at gaa.bcaresearch.com GAA Asset Allocation  

Special Report

Highlights The odds of an emergency meeting of OPEC 2.0 to get supply under control are growing, based on the repeated overtures from Russian officials providing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) an opening to resume talks on their production-management regime. We have developed a not-unreasonable scenario in which global oil consumption falls by ~ 20% y/y in April to assess the COVID-19-induced price impact. Even an aggressive 3.5mm b/d cut from OPEC 2.0 – presuming a rapprochement between KSA and Russia – and an additional 200k b/d market-induced cut by North American producers still sees Brent prices bottoming over the next two months at ~ $18/bbl. OECD inventories surge, reaching ~ 3.6 billion by June 2020, before production cuts and demand restoration start to drain them. Comments from Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) leadership indicate they could be back in the business of pro-rating production in the Lone Star state. If a new OPEC 3.0 described here can move quickly enough, Brent prices could revive to ~ $45/bbl by year end, and clear $60/bbl by 2Q21.  We are getting long Dec20 Brent and WTI at tonight’s close. Feature Refiners worldwide are reducing runs as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to cut through oil demand like a scythe through wheat.1 Refiners’ inability to sell gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and a host of other products, is forcing crude oil to back up globally in storage facilities, pipelines and, soon, on ships (Chart 1).2  This is occurring while KSA and Russia wage a global market-share war, targeting each others’ refinery customers with lower and lower prices. Without a concerted effort by OPEC 2.0 – the coalition led by KSA and Russia – and the US shales to rein in production, the global supply of storage will be exhausted and oil prices will push well below $20/bbl to force output to shut in.  Indeed, numerous grades of crude oil worldwide already are trading below $20/bbl after factoring in their spreads vs. Brent crude oil as regional takeaway and storage infrastructure are overwhelmed (Chart 2). Chart 1Even With Production Cuts Oil Inventories Will Surge Chart 2Global Crude Prices Trading Below $20/bbl Chart 3“The Other Guys” Production Declines Will Accelerate The consequences for oil producers outside core-OPEC will be disastrous, as they were following the last market-share war led by OPEC in 2014-16.  The producer group we’ve dubbed “The Other Guys” – producers outside core-OPEC – will continue to see production falling, most likely at an accelerating rate, if the market-share war persists (Chart 3).  Even within core-OPEC – principally the GCC states – governments will be required to cut spending on public works, salaries for workers, and services.3 Sovereign wealth funds and foreign reserves will have to be drawn down to fill holes in budgets, as happened during the last market-share war of 2014-16 launched by OPEC.  The IMF last week noted the world economy is in recession, and that EM economies in particular will see growth fall sharply as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.4 “We are in an unprecedented situation where a global health pandemic has turned into an economic and financial crisis. With a sudden stop in economic activity, global output will contract in 2020. … emerging market and developing countries, especially low-income countries, will be particularly hard hit by a combination of a health crisis, a sudden reversal of capital flows and, for some, a sharp drop in commodity prices. Many of these countries need help to strengthen their crisis response and restore jobs and growth, given foreign exchange liquidity shortages in emerging market economies and high debt burdens in many low-income countries.”  For commodity markets, this means the principal source of demand growth is being severely hobbled. The Oil Demand Hit … Estimating the demand destruction caused by COVID-19 is fraught with uncertainty.  Instead of attempting such an estimate, we simulate a sharp drop in oil demand of close to 20% y/y in April 2020, which is consistent with the lockdowns that are bringing the global economy to a standstill.  Specifically, we have 2Q20 demand falling ~ 12mm b/d (y/y vs. 2Q19).  Thereafter, demand picks up rapidly in 2H20, reaching a growth rate of 800k b/d by 4Q20.  For all of 2020, we model average demand losses equal to 3.8mm b/d.  For next year, we expect the combination of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus hitting markets globally will lift demand 5.3mm b/d. Net, we view the COVID-19 demand shock as transitory.  But it leaves a huge amount of unrefined crude oil in storage and massive amounts of unsold products in inventory. Left unaddressed, crude oil will continue to fill storage globally, as will unsold refined products.  This will leave oil producers and refiners in an untenable situation, even after demand returns to normal following the pandemic. Strategists in Riyadh, Moscow and Austin, Texas, know this. … Requires A Supply Offset KSA is forcing its competitors to endure what John Rockefeller, one of the founders of Standard Oil Co., once called a “good sweating.”5  A good sweating was a price-cutting strategy designed to drive competitors out of business and force them to sell to Rockefeller’s company.  This occurred in 2014-16 and in 1986, when KSA had to rein in fellow OPEC members that were free-riding on its production discipline. We believe KSA is well aware it cannot endure a years-long market-share war, nor does it want to.  Its primary goal in the current circumstances is to remind oil producers globally that it can, when it choses, take as much market share as it deems necessary.  After flooding global markets in April 2020 we expect the core-OPEC producers in the Gulf (Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq and, of course, KSA) to reduce production by ~ 2.5mm b/d starting in May 2020, and hold these cuts until 2021 (around the time inventories are drawn down to their 5-year average).  In 2021, we have the group increasing production by 2.5mm b/d in 1Q21. As for Russia, we have them increasing production in April 2020 – contributing to the surge in inventories globally.  However, beginning in May, we believe Russia and its non-OPEC allies will agree to remove ~ 1mm b/d , in line with the cuts we expect from core-OPEC. Russia faces political and geopolitical constraints that work against maintaining the market-share war. First, President Vladimir Putin has already been forced to shift his national strategy over the past three years to address growing concerns with domestic discontent due to the recession caused by the 2014 oil shock and the economic austerity policies his government pursued afterwards. These policies give Putin policy room to fight today’s market-share war, but they also portend another massive blow to the livelihood and wellbeing of the nation. Second, Putin is in the midst of arranging an extension of his term in office through 2036, which requires the constitutional court to approve of constitutional changes as well as a popular referendum. The referendum has been delayed due to the pandemic and need for an emergency response. While Putin is generally popular and has underhanded means of orchestrating the referendum, it would be extremely dangerous for him to compound the pandemic and global recession with an oil market-share war that makes matters even worse for the Russian people while simultaneously preparing for a plebiscite.   Third, internationally, Putin cannot ultimately defeat the Saudis or US shale in terms of market share. Therefore the domestic risks posed above are not compensated by an improvement in Russia’s international standing – neither in oil markets nor in broader strategic influence, given that an economic recession hurts Russia’s ability to maintain and modernize its military and security forces. In the US shales, we are modeling a sharp fall-off in production starting as early as May 2020.  For the rest of 2020, production will gradually decline naturally from low rig counts. In 2H20 – probably in 4Q20 – we expect the Texas Railroad Commission to once again regulate oil production in the state, provided other state regulators (e.g., in North Dakota) and producing countries, (e.g., Russia and KSA) also sign on to take on a similar role.6 In addition to the market-driven shut-ins between now and 4Q20, we expect the RRC to secure production cuts of up to 1.5mm b/d by Dec 2020. As prices pick up next year, shale production will stabilize and slowly move up. The supply-demand assumptions we make in this scenario produce a physical surplus for the better part of 2020 (Chart 4). Chart 4Supply-Demand Imbalance Leads to Physical Surplus Prices Could Fall Further, Then Take Off Even if we see OPEC 2.0 cut, and sharp drops in US shale output followed by renewed pro-rationing by state regulators in the US led by Texas, the fact that they’ve all increased production for April means storage will inevitably rise drastically in the coming months (Chart 5).  As inventory skyrockets in the wake of both the massive demand and supply shocks in 1Q20 and April 2020, prices will fall to $20/bbl (Chart 6). Chart 5Inventories Swell on Demand Shock, Then Drain on Supply Cuts Chart 6Brent Prices Forced Lower, Then Move Above $60/bbl Once the large-scale OPEC 2.0 cuts start, prices rebound rapidly. Demand also starts picking up this summer, which also will lift prices. For 2020, we expect Brent prices to average $35/bbl, while in 2021 we expect Brent to average $66/bbl. Over this period, WTI will trade $2-$4/bbl below Brent.   Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com Matt Gertken Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com     Footnotes 1     Please see Global oil refiners shut down as coronavirus destroys demand published by reuters.com March 26, 2020, and S&P Global Platts report Refinery margin tracker: Global refining margins take a severe hit on falling gasoline demand published March 23. 2     This appears to be happening now, as pipeline operators ask shippers to reduce the rate at which they fill the lines.  Please see Pipelines ask U.S. drillers to slow output as storage capacity dwindles published by worldoil.com March 30, 2020.  3    Prominently among the GCC states, KSA cuts public spending 5% and introduced fiscal measures meant to cushion the blow of the COVID-19 shock and to offset the low prices resulting from its market-share war with Russia.  Please see Saudi Arabia announces $32 billion in emergency funds to mitigate oil, coronavirus impact published by cnbc.com March 20, 2020. 4     Please see the Joint Statement by the Chair of International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund issued by International Monetary and Financial Committee Chair Lesetja Kganyago and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva March 27, 2020. 5     Please see Daniel Yergin’s The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, published by Simon & Schuster in 1990, particularly Chapter 2 for a discussion of Rockefeller’s “good sweating,” in which competitors were driven out of business by low prices engineered by Rockefeller if they refused to sell out to Standard Oil. 6     The tone of remarks from TRR Chairman Wayne Christian has become more agreeable to having the TRR Commission return to pro-rating oil production in the Lone Star state.  His recent editorial for worldoil.com notes, “Any action taken by Texas must be done in lockstep with other oil producing states and nations, ensuring that they cut production at similar times and in similar amounts.”  Please see  Christian’s editorial, Texas RRC Chairman Wayne Christian: We must stabilize worldwide oil markets, published by worldoil.com March 25, 2020.  

Dear Client, I will be discussing the economic and financial implications of the pandemic with my colleague Caroline Miller this Friday, March 27 at 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 PM GMT, 1:00 PM CET, 8:00 PM HKT). I hope you will be able to join us for this webcast. Next week, we will send you a special report prepared by BCA’s Chief Economist Martin Barnes. Martin will provide his perspective on the current crisis, focusing on some of the longer-run implications. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights The world is in the midst of a deep recession. Growth should recover in the third quarter as the measures taken to compensate for the initial slow response to the crisis are relaxed and existing measures are better calibrated to reduce economic distress. Continued monetary support and unprecedented fiscal stimulus should help drive the recovery once businesses reopen and workers return to their jobs. Investors should maintain a modest overweight to global equities. US stocks will lag their foreign peers over the next 12 months. The US dollar has peaked. A weaker dollar should help lift commodity prices and the more cyclical sectors of the stock market. High-yield credit spreads will narrow over the next 12 months, but we prefer investment-grade credit on a risk-reward basis. Investors are understating the potential long-term inflationary consequences of all the stimulus that has been unleashed on the global economy. Buy TIPS and gold. I. Macroeconomic Outlook The global economy is now in recession. The recession has occurred because policymakers saw it as the lesser of two evils. They judged, with good reason, that a temporary shutdown of most non-essential economic activities was a price worth paying to contain the virus. Outside of China, the level of real GDP is likely to be down 1%-to-3% in Q1 of 2020 relative to Q4 of 2019, and down another 5%-to-10% in Q2 relative to Q1. On a sequential annualized basis, this implies that GDP growth could register a negative print of 40% in some countries in the second quarter, a stunning number that has few parallels in history. Growth in China should stage a modest rebound in the second quarter, reflecting the success the country has had in containing the virus. Nevertheless, the level of Chinese economic activity will remain well below its pre-crisis trend, with exports increasingly weighed down by the collapse in overseas spending. A One-Two Punch The “sudden stop” nature of the downturn stems from the fact that the global economy was simultaneously hit by both a massive demand and supply shock. When households are confined to their homes, they cannot spend as much as they normally would. This is particularly the case in an environment of heightened risk aversion, which usually leads to increased precautionary savings. At times like these, businesses also slash spending in a desperate effort to preserve cash. All this reduces aggregate demand. On the supply side, production has been impaired because of workers’ inability to get to their jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, less than 30% of US employees can work from home (Chart 1). Since modern economies rely on an intricate division of labor, disturbances in one part of the economy quickly ripple through to other parts. The global supply chain ceases to function normally. Chart 1US: Who Can Work From Home And Who Cannot? Think of this as a Great Depression-style demand shock combined with a category five hurricane supply shock.  The fact that both of these shocks have been concentrated in the service sector, which represents at least two-thirds of GDP in most economies, has made the situation even worse (Chart 2). During most recessions, the service sector is the ballast that helps stabilize the economy in the face of sharp declines in the more cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and housing. This time is different. Chart 2The Service Sector Accounts For A Big Chunk Of GDP And Has Been Very Hard Hit The Shape Of The Recovery: L, U, or V? Provided that the number of new infections around the world stabilizes during the next two months, growth should begin to recover in the third quarter. What will the recovery look like? From the perspective of sequential quarterly growth rates, a V-shaped recovery is inevitable simply because a string of quarters of negative 20%-to-40% growth would quickly leave the world with no GDP at all. However, thinking in terms of growth rates is not the best approach. It is better to think of the level of real GDP. Chart 3 shows three scenarios: 1) An L-shaped profile for real GDP where the level of output falls and then remains permanently depressed relative to its long-term trend; 2) A sluggish U-shaped recovery where output slowly rebounds starting in the second half of the year; and 3) A rapid V-shaped recovery where output quickly moves back to its pre-crisis trend. Chart 3Profile Of The Recovery: L, U, or V? We had previously thought that the recovery from the pandemic would be V-shaped. Compared to the sluggish recovery following the Great Recession, that is likely still true. However, at this point, we would prefer to characterize the probable recovery as being more U-shaped in nature. This is mainly because the measures necessary to contain the virus may end up having to remain in place, in one form or another, for the next few years. Why Not L? Given the likelihood that containment measures will continue to weigh on economic activity, how can an L-shaped “recovery” be avoided? While such a dire outcome cannot be ruled out, there are three reasons to think “U” is more likely than “L”. Reason #1: We Will Learn From Experience It is almost certain that we will figure out how to fine-tune containment measures to reduce the economic burden without increasing the number of lives lost. There are still many questions that remain unanswered. For example: Are restaurants where family members sit together really more dangerous than bars or conferences where strangers are milling about talking to one another? How dangerous is air travel? Modern airplanes have hospital-grade filtration systems that recirculate all the air in the cabin every three minutes. Might this explain why there has only been a handful of flight attendants that have tested positive for the virus? How contagious are children, who often may not present any symptoms at all? Which drugs might slow the spread of the disease or perhaps even cure it? To what extent would widespread mask-wearing help? Yes, a mask may not prevent you from catching the virus, but if there is major social stigma associated with being unmasked in public, then people who have the virus and may not know it will be less of a threat to others. One study estimates that the virus could be completely eradicated if 80% of people always wore masks.1  With time, we will learn the answers to these questions. We will also be able to stockpile masks, ventilators, respirators, and test kits – all of which are currently in short supply – to better combat the virus. Reason #2: We Are NowOvercompensating For Lost Time Second, most countries are currently at the stage where they are trying not just to bring down the basic reproduction number for the virus to 1, but to drive it down to well below 1. There is merit in doing so. If you can reduce the reproduction number to say, 0.5, meaning that 100 people with the virus will pass it on to only 50 other people, then the number of new infections will fall rapidly over time. This is what China was finally able to achieve. A recent study documented that China succeeded in bringing down the reproduction number in Wuhan from 3.86 to 0.32 once all the containment measures had been implemented (Chart 4).2 Chart 4Severe Containment Measures Have Changed The Course Of The Wuhan Outbreak The critical point is that once you reduce the number of new infections to a sufficiently low level, you can then relax the containment measures by just enough so that the reproduction number rises back to 1. At that point, the number of new infections at any given point in time will be constant. One can see this point by imagining a bicycle coasting down a mountain road. Ideally, the rider should apply uniform pressure on the brakes at the outset of the descent to prevent the bicycle from accelerating too quickly. However, if the rider is too slow to apply the brakes and ends up going too fast, he or she will then need to overcompensate by pressing hard on the brakes to slow the bike down before easing off the brakes a bit. Most of the world is currently in the same predicament as the cyclist who failed to squeeze the brakes early on. We are overcompensating to get the infection rate down. However, once the infection rate has fallen by enough, we can ease off the most economically onerous measures, allowing GDP to slowly recover. Reason #3: Containment Measure Will Be Eased As More People Acquire Immunity Much of the popular discussion of the epidemiology of COVID-19 has failed to distinguish between the basic reproduction number, R0, and the effective reproduction number, Re. The former measures the average number of people a carrier of the virus will infect in an entirely susceptible population, whereas the latter measures the average number of people who will be infected after some fraction of the population acquires immunity either by surviving the disease or getting vaccinated. Mathematically, Re = R0*(1-P), where P is the proportion of the population which has acquired immunity. For example, suppose P=0.5, meaning that half the population has acquired immunity. In this case, the average number of people a carrier will infect will be only half as high as when no one has immunity. As we discuss below, there is considerable uncertainty about how fast P will increase over time, including whether it could spike upwards if a vaccine becomes widely available. Still, any increase in P will make it more difficult for the virus to propagate. Over time, this will permit policymakers to raise R0 at an accelerating rate towards the level it would naturally be in the absence of any containment measures (Chart 5). Such a strategy would allow economic activity to increase without raising Re; that is to say, without triggering an explosion in the number of new cases. Chart 5Populations Acquiring Immunity Is Key The Virus Endgame How long will it take to dismantle all the containment measures completely? This partly depends on what medical breakthroughs occur and what measures are needed to “flatten the curve” of new infections (Chart 6). Right now, most countries are trying to drive down the number of new infections to very low levels in the hopes that either a vaccine will be invented or new treatment options will become available. Chart 6Flattening The Curve We are not medical experts and will not offer an opinion on how likely a breakthrough may be. What we would say is that combating the virus has become a modern-day Manhattan project. If the project succeeds, a V-shaped recovery could still ensue. What if the virus evades the best efforts of scientists to eradicate it? In that case, the only way for life to return to some semblance of normalcy is for the population to acquire herd immunity. How many people would need to be infected? In the context of the foregoing discussion, this is equivalent to asking how high P needs to rise for Re to fall below 1. The equation above tells us this must correspond to the value of P for which R0 (1-P) <1. Solving for P yields P > 1-1/R0. In the absence of social distancing and other containment measures, most estimates of R0 for COVID-19 place it between 1.5 and 4. This implies that between one-third (1-1/1.5) to three-quarters (1-1/4) of the population would need to be infected for herd immunity to set in. Even if one allows for the likelihood that significantly more resources will be marshalled to allow hospitals to service a greater number of patients, we estimate that it would take 2-to-3 years to reach that point.3 To be clear, the virus’ ability to spread will decline even before herd immunity is achieved. An increase in the share of the population who survived and became naturally inoculated against the virus would allow policymakers to relax containment measures, perhaps to such an extent that eventually only the simplest of actions such as increased hand-washing and widespread mask-wearing would be enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. This underscores our baseline expectation of a U-shaped economic recovery. Second-Round Effects Suppose the global economy starts to recover in the third quarter of this year as the measures taken to compensate for the initial slow response to the crisis are relaxed, existing measures are better calibrated to reduce economic distress, and more younger and healthier people acquire natural immunity to the virus, thus reducing the vulnerability of the old and frail. Does that mean we are out of the woods? Not necessarily! We still have to worry about the second-round economic effects. Even if the virus is contained, there is a risk that the economy will be so scarred by the initial drop in output that it will fail to recover. A vicious circle could emerge where falling spending leads to higher unemployment, leading to even less spending. In the current environment, the tendency for unemployment to rise may be initially mitigated by the decision of a few large companies with ample financial resources to pay their workers even if they are confined to their homes. This would result in a decline in labor productivity rather than higher unemployment. That said, given the severity of the shock and the fact that many of the hardest-hit firms are in the labor-intensive service sector, a sharp rise in joblessness is still inevitable, particularly in countries with flexible labor markets such as the US. Chart 7Worries Over Job Security Abound Today’s spike in US initial unemployment claims is testament to that point (Chart 7). In fact, the true increase in the unemployment rate will probably be greater than what is implied by the claims data because many state websites did not have the bandwidth to handle the slew of applications. In addition, under existing rules, the self-employed and those working in the “gig economy” do not qualify for unemployment benefits (this has been rectified in the bill now making its way to the White House). The Role Of Policy Could we really end up in a world where the virus is contained, and people are ready and able to work, only to find that there are no jobs available? While such a sorry outcome cannot be dismissed, we would bet against it. This outcome would only arise if there is insufficient demand throughout the economy when it reopens. Unlike in 2008/09 when there was a lot of moralizing about how this or that group deserved to be punished for their reckless behavior, no one in their right mind today would argue that the workers losing their jobs and the companies facing bankruptcy somehow had it coming. What can policymakers realistically do? On the monetary side, policy rates are already close to zero in most developed economies. A number of emerging markets still have scope to cut rates, but even there, many find themselves not far from the zero bound (Chart 8). Chart 8DM Rates At The Zero Bound, With EM Rates Approaching Chart 9A Mad Scramble For Cash   That said, cutting interest rates right now is not the only, and probably not the most important, way for central banks to stimulate their economies. The global economy is facing a cash shortage. Companies are tapping credit lines at a time when banks would normally be looking to increase their own cash reserves. The mad scramble for cash has caused libor, repo, and commercial paper spreads to surge (Chart 9). And not just any cash. As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar is increasingly in short supply (Chart 10). This explains why cross-currency basis spreads have soared and why the DXY index has jumped to the highest level in 17 years. Chart 10Dollars Are In Short Supply   Flood The Zone Chart 11US Mortgage Spreads Have Spiked The good news is that there is no limit to how many dollars the Federal Reserve can create. The Fed has already expanded the supply of bank reserves by initiating the purchase of $500 billion in treasuries and another $200 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) since relaunching its QE program on March 15th. Further MBS purchases will be especially useful given that mortgage rates have not come down as quickly as Treasury yields (Chart 11). The Fed has also dusted off the alphabet soup of programs created during the financial crisis to improve proper market functioning, and has even added a few more to the list, including a program to support investment-grade corporate bonds and another to support small businesses. In order to ease overseas funding pressures, the Fed has opened up swap lines with a number of central banks. We expect these lines to be expanded to more countries if the situation necessitates it. The Coming Mar-A-Lago Accord? We also think that there is at least a 50-50 chance that we could see coordinated currency interventions designed to drive down the value of the US dollar. Federal Reserve, Treasury, and IMF guidelines all permit currency intervention to counter “disorderly market conditions.” While a weaker dollar would erode the export competitiveness of some countries, this would be more than offset by the palliative effects of additional dollar liquidity stemming from US purchases of foreign securities, as well as the relief that overseas dollar borrowers would receive from dollar depreciation. Thus, on balance, a weaker dollar would result in an easing of global financial conditions. Liquidity Versus Solvency Risk Some might complain that the actions of the Fed and other central banks go well beyond their mandates. They might argue that it is one thing to provide liquidity to the financial system; it is quite another to socialize credit risk. We think these arguments are largely red herrings. For one thing, concern about credit risk can be addressed by having governments backstop central banks for any losses they incur. Moreover, there is no clear distinction between liquidity and solvency risk during a financial crisis. The former can very easily morph into the latter. For example, consider the case of Italy. Would you buy more Italian bonds if the yield rises? That depends on two competing considerations. On the one hand, a higher yield makes the bond cheaper. On the other hand, a higher yield may make it more difficult for the government to service its debt obligations, which raises the risk of default. If the second consideration outweighs the first, your inclination may be to sell the bond. To the extent that your selling causes yields to rise further, that could lead to another wave of selling. As Chart 12 illustrates, this means that there may be multiple equilibria in fixed-income markets. It is absolutely the job of central banks to try to steer the economy towards the good ”low yield” equilibrium rather than the bad “default” equilibrium. Chart 12Multiple Equilibria In Debt Markets Are Possible Without A Lender Of Last Resort In this light, ECB president Christine Lagarde’s statement on March 12th that “we are not here to close spreads” –  coming on the heels of a spike in Italian bond yields and a 13% drop in euro area stocks the prior day – was one of the most negligent things a central banker has ever said. To her credit, she has since walked back her comments. The ECB has also launched the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), a EUR 750bn asset-purchase program, which gives the central bank considerable flexibility over the timing, composition, and geographic makeup of purchases. Further actions, including upsizing the PEPP, creating a “conditionality-lite” version of the ESM program, and perhaps even issuing Eurobonds, are possible. All this should help Italy. Accordingly, BCA’s global fixed-income team upgraded Italian government bonds to overweight this week. Using Fiscal Policy To Align Financial Time With Economic Time While central banks will play an important role in mitigating the crisis, most of the economic burden will fall on fiscal policy. How much fiscal support is necessary and what should it consist of? To get a sense of what is optimal, it is useful to distinguish between the concept of financial time and economic time. Financial time and economic time usually beat at the same pace. Most of the time, people have financial obligations – rent, mortgage payments, spending on necessities – that they match with the income earned from work. Likewise, companies have expenses that they match with the revenue that they derive from various economic activities.  No one worries when economic time and financial time deviate in predictable ways. For example, GDP collapses around 5pm on Monday only to recover at 9am on Tuesday. The fact that many western Europeans take most of August off for vacation is also not a problem, since everyone expects this. The problem occurs when economic time and financial time deviate in unpredictable ways. That is the case at present. Today, economic time has ground to a halt as businesses shutter their doors and workers confine themselves to their homes. Yet, financial time continues to march on. This implies that in the near term, the correct course of action is for governments to transfer money to households and firms to allow them to service their financial obligations. One simple way of achieving this is through wage subsidies, where the government pays companies most of the wage bill of their employees who, through no fault of their own, are unable to work. Note that this strategy does not boost GDP. By definition, an idle worker is one who does not contribute to economic output. What this strategy does do is alleviate needless hardship, while creating pent-up demand for when businesses start to open their doors again. Once the virus is contained, traditional fiscal stimulus that boosts aggregate demand will be appropriate. How much money are we talking about? In the case of the US, suppose that annualized growth is -5% in Q1, -25% in Q2, and +10% in Q3 and Q4, respectively. That would leave the level of real GDP down 4% on the year compared to 2019. Assuming trend GDP growth of 2%, that implies an annual shortfall of income (consisting of wages and lost profits) that the government would have to cover amounting to 6% of GDP. The $2 trillion stimulus bill amounts to 10% of GDP, although not all of that will be spent during the next 12 months and about a quarter of the amount is in the form of loans and loan guarantees. Still, on size, we would give it an “A”. On composition, we would give it a “B”, as it lacks sufficient funding for state and local governments to cover the likely decline in the tax revenues that they will experience. This could result in layoffs of first responders, teachers, etc. Given that the US was running a fiscal deficit going into the crisis, all this additional stimulus could easily push the budget deficit to over 15% of GDP. While this is a huge number, keep in mind that in a world where interest rates are below the trend growth rate of the economy, a government can permanently increase its budget deficit by any amount it wants while still achieving a stable debt-to-GDP ratio over the long haul.4 Today, we are not even talking about a permanent increase in the deficit, but a temporary increase that could last a few years at most. If we end up in a depression, don’t blame the virus; blame politicians. Fortunately, given that the political incentives are aligned towards fiscal easing rather than austerity, our guess is that a depression will be averted. Appendix A summarizes the monetary and fiscal measures that have already been taken in the major economies. II. Investment Strategy As anyone who has ever watched a horror movie knows, the scariest part of the film is the one before the monster is revealed to the audience. No matter how good the makeup or set design, our imaginations can always conjure up something much more frightening than Hollywood can invent. Right now, we are fighting an invisible enemy that is ravaging the world. Victory is in sight. The number of new infections has peaked in China and South Korea. I mentioned during last week’s webcast that we should watch Italy very carefully. If the number of new infections peaks there, that would send an encouraging signal to financial markets that other western democracies will be able to get the virus under control. While it is too early to be certain, this may be happening: Both the number of new cases and deaths in Italy have stabilized over the past five days (Chart 13). Chart 13A Peak In The Number Of New COVID-19 Cases In Italy Would Send An Encouraging Signal Of course, there is still the risk that the number of new infections will rise again if containment measures are relaxed prematurely. However, as we spelled out in this report, there are good reasons to think that these measures will not need to be as severe as the ones currently in place. As such, it is likely that global growth will begin to rebound in the third quarter of this year. Equities: A Modest Overweight Is Warranted We turned more cautious on the near-term outlook for global equities earlier this year, but upgraded our recommendation on the morning of February 28th after the MSCI All-Country World Index fell by 12% over the prior week. While stocks did rally by 7% during the following three trading days, they subsequently plunged to multi-year lows. In retrospect, we should have paid more attention to our own warnings in our earlier report titled “Markets Too Complacent About The Coronavirus.” 5 For now, we would recommend a modest overweight to stocks on both a 3-month and 12-month horizon. Monetary and fiscal easing and the prospect of a peak in the number of new cases in Italy could continue to support stocks in the near term, while a rebound in growth starting this summer should pave the way for a recovery in corporate earnings over a 12-month horizon. Chart 14US Equity Valuations Are Not Yet At Bombed-Out Levels Of course, when it comes to financial markets, one should always be prepared to adjust one’s conviction level if prices either rise or fall significantly. We mentioned two weeks ago that we would move to a high-conviction overweight if the S&P 500 fell below 2250. While the index did briefly fall below this level, it has since bounced back to about 2630. At its current level, the S&P 500 is trading at 15.3-times forward earnings (Chart 14). While this is not particularly expensive, it is still well above the trough of 10.5-times forward earnings reached in 2011 during the height of the euro crisis. And keep in mind that current earnings estimates are based on the stale assumption that S&P 500 companies will earn $172 over the next four quarters, down only 3% from the peak earnings estimate of $177 reached in February. With this in mind, we are introducing a lower and upper bound for global equity prices at which we will adjust our view. To keep things simple, we will focus on the S&P 500, which accounts for over half of global stock market capitalization. If the S&P 500 falls below (and stays below) 2250, we would recommend a high-conviction overweight to global stocks. If the index rises above 2750, we would recommend a neutral equity allocation. Anything between 2250 and 2750 would justify the current stance of modest overweight. Going forward, we will adjust this range as events warrant it. Our full slate of views can be found in the table at the end of this report. Sector And Regional Equity Allocation: Favor Cyclicals and Non-US Over A 12-Month Horizon Not surprisingly, defensive equity sectors outperformed cyclicals both in the US and abroad during this month’s selloff. Financials also underperformed on heightened worries about rising defaults and the adverse effect on net interest margins from flatter yield curves (Chart 15). Chart 15Cyclicals And Financials Underperformed On The Way Down Chart 16Non-US Stocks Are Cheaper Even After Adjusting For Differences In Sector Weights   Cyclicals and financials have outperformed the broader market over the past few days as risk sentiment has improved. They are likely to continue outperforming over a 12-month horizon as global growth eventually recovers and yield curves steepen modestly. To the extent that cyclicals and financials are overrepresented in stock market indices outside the US, this will give non-US equities the edge. Stocks outside the US also benefit from more favorable valuations. Even after adjusting for differences in sector weights, non-US stocks are quite a bit cheaper than their US peers as judged by price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and other valuation measures (Chart 16). The US Dollar Has Probably Peaked Another factor that should help cyclical stocks later this year is the direction of the US dollar. The greenback has been buffeted by two major forces this year (Chart 17). Chart 17The Dollar Has Been Facing Crosscurrents Chart 18USD Is A Countercyclical Currency   Between February 19 and March 9, the dollar weakened as US bond yields fell more than yields abroad. This eliminated some of the yield advantage that had been supporting the dollar last year. Starting around the second week of March, however, global financial stresses escalated. Money began to flow into the safe-haven Treasury market. Global growth prospects also deteriorated sharply. As a countercyclical currency, this helped the dollar (Chart 18). Looking out, interest rate differentials are unlikely to return anywhere close to where they were at the start of this year, given that the Fed will probably keep rates near zero at least until the middle of 2021. Meanwhile, aggressive central bank liquidity injections should reduce financial stress, while a rebound in global growth will allow capital to start flowing back towards riskier foreign markets. This should result in a weaker dollar. Once Growth Bottoms, So Will Commodities Chart 19Low Prices Force US Shale Cutbacks The combination of a weaker dollar, a rebound in global growth starting this summer, and increased infrastructure stimulus spending in China should help lift resource prices. This will also buoy currencies such as the AUD, CAD, and NOK in the developed market space, and RUB, CLP, ZAR, and IDR, in the EM space. Oil prices have tumbled on the back of the sudden stop in global economic activity and the breakdown of the agreement between OPEC and Russia to restrain crude production. BCA’s commodity strategists expect the Saudis and Russians to come to an agreement to reduce output, as neither side has an incentive to pursue a prolonged price war. They see Brent prices averaging $36/barrel in 2020 and $55/barrel in 2021. However, prices are not likely to go much higher than $60/barrel because that would take them well above the current breakeven cost for shale producers, eliciting a strong supply response (Chart 19). Spread Product: Favor IG Over HY A rebound in oil prices from today’s ultra-depressed levels should help the bonds of energy companies, which are overrepresented in high-yield indices. This, together with stronger global growth and improving risk sentiment, should allow HY spreads to narrow over a 12-month horizon. Chart 20High-Yield Credit Is Pricing In Only A Moderate Recession Nevertheless, we think investment grade currently offers a better risk-reward profile. While HY spreads have jumped to more than 1000 basis points in the US, they are still nowhere close to 2008 peak levels of almost 2000 basis points. Like the equity market, high-yield credit is pricing in only a modest recession, with a default rate on par with the 2001 downturn (Chart 20). Moreover, central banks around the world are racing to protect high-quality borrowers from default. The Fed’s announcement that it will effectively backstop the investment-grade corporate bond market could be a game changer in this regard. Unfortunately for HY credit, the moral hazard consequences of bailing out companies that investors knew were risky when they first bought the bonds are too great for policymakers to bear. Government Bonds: Deflation Today, Inflation Tomorrow? As noted at the outset of this report, the current economic downturn involves both an adverse supply and demand shock. Outside of a few categories of consumer staples and medical products, we expect demand to fall more than supply, resulting in downward pressure on prices. This deflationary impulse will be exacerbated by rising unemployment. Looking beyond the next 12-to-18 months, the outlook for inflation is less clear. On the one hand, it is possible that the psychological trauma from the pandemic will produce a permanent, or at least semi-permanent, increase in precautionary savings. If budget deficits are reined in too quickly, many countries could find themselves facing a shortage of aggregate demand. This would be deflationary. On the other hand, one can easily envision a scenario where monetary policy remains highly accommodative and many of the fiscal measures put in place to support households are maintained long after the virus is eradicated. This could be particularly true in the US, where our geopolitical team now expects Joe Biden to win the presidential election. In such an environment, unemployment could fall back to its lows, eventually leading to an overheated economy. Our hunch is that the more inflationary scenario will unfold over the next 2-to-3 years. Interestingly, that is not the market’s opinion. For example, the 5-year US TIPS breakeven inflation rate is currently only 0.69% and the 10-year rate is 1.07%. This means that a buy-and-hold investor will make money owning TIPS versus nominals if inflation averages more than 0.69% per year for the next five years, or 1.07% per year for the next decade. That is a bet we would be willing to take. Finally, a word on gold. Just as during the Global Financial Crisis, gold failed to be an attractive hedge against financial risk during the recent stock market selloff – bullion dropped by 15% from $1704/oz to $1451/oz, before rebounding back to $1640/oz over the past few days as risk sentiment improved. Nevertheless, gold remains a good hedge against long-term inflation risk. And with the US dollar likely to weaken over the next 12 months, gold prices should move up even if near-term inflationary pressures remain contained. As such, we are upgrading our outlook on the yellow metal. Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com Appendix A Appendix A Table 1Central Banks Still Had Some Options When Crisis Hit Appendix A Table 2Massive Stimulus In Response To Pandemic Footnotes 1  Jing Yan, Suvajyoti Guha, Prasanna Hariharan, and Matthew Myers, “Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak,” U.S. National Library of Medicine, (39:3), March 2019. 2  Chaolong Wang, Li Liu, Xingjie Hao, Huan Guo, Qi Wang, Jiao Huang, Na He, Hongjie Yu, Xihong Lin, Sheng Wei, and Tangchun Wu, “Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China,”medrxiv.org, March 6, 2020. 3  This calculation assumes that 5% of infected people need ICU care and each spends an average of 2 weeks in the ICU. It also assumes that hospitals are able to expand their capacity by 30 additional ICU beds per 100,000 people per year to treat COVID-19. 4  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Is There Really Too Much Government Debt In The World?” dated February 22, 2019, available at gis.bcarearch.com. 5  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Markets Too Complacent About The Coronavirus,” dated February 21, 2020, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. Global Investment Strategy View Matrix MacroQuant Model And Current Subjective Scores Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades