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Policy

The Trade War Finally Hits CPI

We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Restrictive Policy, Falling Inflation Support India Bond Longs
With inflation at a six-year low and restrictive policy weighing on growth, our EM strategists remain long Indian bonds and underweight equities. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% y/y, largely driven by lower food prices, bringing inflation to the lower bound of the…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Too Early To Sound The All Clear

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Still Moving Sideways

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Macro Resilience Keeps RBA Cautious, ACGBs Vulnerable
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the decision as a matter of timing,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
CAD Strength Tightens The Screws On A Softening Economy
Canada’s stronger currency and tightening financial conditions point to further BoC easing and support long Canadian bond positions. The CAD has appreciated this year alongside the global push to diversify away from USD assets, which has weakened the US…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Q3 Geopolitical Outlook
Our Geopolitical strategists warn that structural and cyclical risks remain elevated despite a fading threat of acute shocks, and recommend booking profits ahead of tariffs and weaker data. President Trump is passing his signature legislation and pivoting to…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Geopolitics, Q3

Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to stumble. Investors should book some profits in anticipation of tariff implementation and a downturn in hard economic data.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Downgrade Egypt: Risks Rising

Downward pressure on the pound will rise in the coming months. Inflation will go up, so will bond yields. It’s time to book profits on Egyptian domestic bonds.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
The Post-Pandemic Hangover
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists expect lower interest rates to revive a sluggish US economy, prompting upgrades to duration and equities. Although not in recession, the US is enduring one of the weakest non-recessionary years on record, weighed down…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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