Policy

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and suggests a few trade ideas.

2 years ago

Currencies

Essentials

What’s Ailing ASEAN Markets?

The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets…

2 years ago

GeoMacro

Geopolitics In Q3 2024

Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.

2 years ago

CoreMacro

It’s Bear-zin Now: A Q&A

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.

2 years ago

Global

Essentials

ZEW Survey Is Too Optimistic

The Euro Area economy broadly surprised to the upside in the first half of 2024. Cooling inflation lifted real wages and the global late cycle amelioration benefitted the pro-cyclical Euro Area economy, but these tailwinds are fading. First, monetary…

2 years ago

Essentials

Canadian Bonds Are Still A Good Bet

Markets had already been sussing out that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates for the second time when it meets next week, and this morning’s soft CPI report all but confirmed it. The last remaining obstacle in the way of another BoC rate cut was the…

2 years ago

Essentials

Strategy For LATAM Markets

Non-trivial divergences emerged between mainstream LATAM economies after the 2021 post-pandemic boom. These growth differentials are set to continue across the cyclical horizon. According to our Emerging Markets strategists, for the next six months, Brazil…

2 years ago

Essentials

China's Q2 Economic Growth Disappoints

China's real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% y/y in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1 and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%. Domestic demand weakened, with retail sales growth sliding to 2% y/y in June, down from 3.7% in the previous month. Our China Strategists…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

How Far Will European Earnings Fall?

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?

2 years ago

Europe

GeoMacro

US Election: Don’t Overrate Personalities

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

2 years ago

Policy

Related Topics