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Policy

BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will largely continue the structural…
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor shortages plagued the US economy due to…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025. The UK’s monetary policy remains…

The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.

Canada’s headline inflation rate for May surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The 0.6% month-on-month print and 2.9% year-on-year increase came in above expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Both measures increased from April. Core inflation…

Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the Norges Bank will be one of the last central banks to cut rates. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Norges Bank all held policy meetings on Thursday. The SNB continued its dovish…

We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.

In a widely expected move, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in June. Although MPC members voted seven-to-two in favor of not cutting rates, a tweak in communication noting that the decision was “finely balanced”, hinted at the…