Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m. Deteriorating consumer sentiment and manufacturing new orders led the overall decline. Contractions in the year-on-year changes in this…
US industrial production stalled in April against expectations of a moderate pace of growth (0.1% m/m) and March’s growth rate was revised lower from 0.4% m/m to 0.1% m/m. Notably, pro-cyclical manufacturing production unexpectedly contracted 0.3% m/m from a…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, among the commodity groups, industrial metals provide the most reliable leading signal that the US economy is heading toward recession. Industrial metals’ greater exposure to the very…
The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.
On the surface, the Tuesday release of the NFIB Small Business Survey indicated resilience among small businesses. The headline index appreciated to 89.7 from 88.5, upending expectations of a moderation to 88.2. However, the marginal improvement has not…
Despite historically high interest rates and the fact that variable-rate mortgage issuances dominate the mortgage market landscape, Australian home prices continue to climb at a close to double-digit annual rate. The Core Logic House Price index is now…
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (from CNY 9.5tr to CNY 10.2tr)…
Emergency pandemic policies elongated the lag between Fed rate hikes and an observable slowdown in the economy. Notably, fiscal transfers and constrained consumption options endowed households with more than $2 trillion of savings they would not otherwise…
The US Citi Economic Surprise Index has recently dipped below zero, indicating that US economic data releases have been disappointing expectations. Most notably, the ISM Services PMI started contracting in April against anticipation of a faster pace of…
Preliminary GDP estimates suggest that the UK economy started growing again in Q1, thus exiting a technical recession in the past two quarters. Q1 growth came in at 0.6%, improving from a 0.3% contraction last quarter, surpassing expectations of 0.4%. On a…