Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Lending standards continued to tighten for most loan categories in Q1 2024. US banks reported tightening lending standards for C&I and CRE. For real-estate-backed loans to households, lending standards tightened further for Home Equity Line of Credits…
The final estimates of Spain's and France’s services PMIs were revised upwards of expectations in April, increasing from 56.1 to 56.2 and from 50.5 to 51.3 respectively. The services European harmonized PMI also increased from 52.9 to a higher-than-expected…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while US economic data clearly show that labor demand has slowed from its peak two years ago, it isn’t yet clear whether this slowing represents a re-normalization to pre-pandemic levels or the start of a…
Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m in March and came in below expectations. On a year-on-year basis, they decelerated from 4.1% to 3.9%, the lowest since June 2021 and below expectations of 4%. Nonfarm payrolls growth…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, commodity prices typically rally toward the end of the business cycle. In the past six recessions, the S&P 500 peaked before commodity prices. While there is significant variability…
Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.
After briefly breaking a 16-month contraction streak, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped back below the 50.0 boom-bust line in April. It decreased from 50.3 to 49.2, disappointing expectations of 50.0. Notably, measures of domestic and foreign demand both…
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence largely disappointed in April. 3.9- and 7.6-point decreases in the Present Situation and Expectations subcomponents, respectively, drove the overall index to a 22-month low of 97.0 in April. This third…
Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative to March 2023. Weak…