Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service is watching households, the labor market and consumer credit for signs of a business cycle inflection and the all-clear signal to underweight equities. Equity bear markets and recessions tend to…

2 years ago

FICC

Recession Postponed

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.

2 years ago

Bonds

Essentials

Strong PCE Report Increases Risk Of Second Wave

Friday’s PCE report showed a resilient US economy. Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% m/m in February, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and remaining above its pre-pandemic trend. Both services and goods contributed positively. Real personal…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

A Checklist For Turning Defensive

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

2 years ago

CoreMacro

MacroQuant Model Update: MacroQuant’s Equity Score Dips Below Average For The First Time In 12 Months

MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a negative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.

2 years ago

MacroQuant

Essentials

Stronger-Than-Expected US Economic Momentum in Q4

The US economy expanded at a faster pace than previously believed in 2023Q4. GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% q/q rate, thus annulling the second estimate’s downward revision. Notably, consumption growth was revised even higher to 3.3% q/q, from 3.0% q/q and…

2 years ago

Essentials

A State-Level Look At US Delinquency Rates And Employment Conditions

At 3.9% in February, the unemployment rate remains quite low in the US, corroborating the signal from GDP that current economic conditions are fine. Similarly, the Sahm Rule – which currently stands at 0.3 pp – has somewhat stabilized in recent months and has…

2 years ago

GeoMacro

Questions From Europe, Canada, California

Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election season will deal negative surprises.

2 years ago

FICC

Ranking US Corporate Bond Sectors Part 2

We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.

2 years ago

Bonds

Essentials

Riksbank Will Be Among The First To Cut Rates

The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side. The press release noted that…

2 years ago

Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

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