Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
In an Insight we published yesterday, we highlighted that the S&P 500 rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices stabilizing over the past month. This has also coincided with a…
For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.
The Conference Board’s gauge of US consumer confidence came in at 104.7 in March – broadly unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February and below expectations of an improvement to 107. The Expectations Index deteriorated from 76.3 to 73.8, while…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the wave of inflation that the US experienced over the past three years cannot be safely repeated. The unemployment rate is a highly mean-reverting series: When it gets down to very low…
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – firmed to 0.05 in February from -0.54, and surpassed expectations it would remain in negative (below-average growth) territory. All four categories of…
The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…
A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as expectations for the next six months…
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) unexpectedly rose by 0.1% m/m in February, surprising anticipations that the pace of decline would ease from -0.4% m/m to -0.1% m/m. Equity gains and the resilience of the US labor market drove the…