Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

f_image_20240228_111132.PNG
CoreMacro
How Returning Workers Saved The US Economy… For Now

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.

Dhaval Joshi
2 years ago
Essentials
US Consumer Confidence Disappoints In February
The US Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence release surprised to the downside. The index decreased to 106.7 from a downwardly revised 110.9, disappointing expectations it would improve to 115.0. Consumers’ assessment of both the present situation…
2 years ago
Essentials
The Business Cycle Outlook Is A Headwind For Industrials
On the surface, the US durable goods report delivered a negative surprise on Tuesday. The 6.1% m/m drop in new orders in January fell below expectations and the December figure was revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.0% m/m.   However, the details of the…
2 years ago
Essentials
Does The Outperformance of UK Small Caps Have Legs?
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period.  To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Whiff Of Bad Breadth
At the headline level, US equity indices are on a tear with the S&P 500 forging a fresh all-time high last week and the NASDAQ on the verge of overtaking its November 2021 record close. However, the rally remains quite narrow, led by only a few stocks. As…
2 years ago
Essentials
Germany Will Likely Drag Euro Area Into Contraction
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Meaningful Revival In US Capex Intentions?
Monday’s release of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index corroborates the signal from other regional Fed surveys that manufacturing conditions are picking up in the US. The headline Current General Business Activity index jumped from -27.4 to -11.3 in…
2 years ago
f_image_20240226_115904.PNG
FICC
A Checklist For Extending Duration In The US Bond Market

The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.

Ryan Swift
2 years ago
Bonds
f_image_20240223_131911.PNG
CoreMacro
The Rest Of Europe Versus Germany

Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
Europe
Essentials
German Ifo Signals Stabilization, Not Meaningful Recovery
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
2 years ago

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity